News

In November 2025, US inflation surprised sharply to the downside while the labor market weakened, pushing the US dollar lower and US stock indices sharply higher.

The USD/JPY pair rises to around 155.60 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The US Dollar (USD) edges higher against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on the cautious comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller.

Japanese trade and capex-indicative data:

more to come

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As I said earlier, the Bank of Japan will begin its two day meeting tomorrow, Thursday, December 18, 2025. On Friday we'll get the statement followed by Bank of Japan Governor Ueda's press conference:

• the statement is expected some time in the 0230 to 0330 GMT time window (this is 2230 - 2330 US Eastern time). The BoJ do not have a set scheduled time for the release;
• Bank of Japan Governor Ueda's press conference will follow at 0630 GMT (this is 0130 US Eastern time).

A 25bp interest rate rise is widely expected, from 0.5% to 0.75%.

All Precious Metals Looking Bullish, Platinum Hitting Long-Term High; Stock Markets Making Minor Recovery from Friday’s Losses; Trump Talks Down Inflation

The Daily Breakdown dives into Meta, which has underperformed the S&P 500 so far in 2025 as investors question its AI spending. Before we dive in, let’s make sure you’re set to receive The Daily Breakdown each morning. To keep getting our daily insights, all you need to do is log in to your eToro…

The post Deep Dive: Can Meta Regain “Likes” in 2026? appeared first on eToro.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1646; (P) 1.1673; (R1) 1.1724; More…. Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside at this point. The break of 1.1747 resistance should confirm that fall form 1.1917 has completed as a correction to 1.1467. Further rally should be seen to retest 1.1917 high. For now, risk will stay on the upside […]

The post EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on ActionForex.

Introduction to AUDUSD The AUDUSD currency pair-commonly known as the “Aussie-tracks the exchange rate between the Australian Dollar and the US Dollar. It is one of the most actively traded pairs in the forex market, driven by interest rate differentials, commodity prices, and overall risk sentiment. The Aussie is seen as a proxy for global […]

The post AUDUSD Technical Breakout: Bullish Trend Builds appeared first on UnitedPips Ltd.

  High Expectations How Markets Really React to News High Expectations Navigating financial markets around major news events can feel unpredictable even for experienced traders....

The post How Markets Really React to News: Understanding Expectations, Sentiment, and Price Action appeared first on Forex Trading Forum.

The ADX indicator on the 4-hour XAU/USD chart has dropped to a multi-month low, signalling the absence of a clear trend.

• US stocks close marginally higher
• Trump says Witkoff meeting with Putin 'reasonably good'. Trump adds no substantive details
• Tomorrow in the US the Challenger job cuts and US unemployment claims
• Crude oil futures settle at $58.95
• Gasparino: Wall Street does not like Hassett.
• Rep Stefanik: Calls House Speaker an ineffective leader who is losing control over the GOP
• European stock indices close mixed. German DAX and UK's FTSE 100 close lower
• Treasury's Lavorgna: Expecting more growth in 2026 driven by measures from Trump tax act
• EIA crude oil inventories build of 0.574M versus a drawdown of -0.821 million estimate
• Microsoft: We did not lower our AI sales quotas
• Commerce Sec. Howard Lutnick: Prices don't move unless tariffs are above 50%
• US ISM nonmanufacturing PMI 52.6 versus 52.1 estimate
• US S&P global services PMI for November 54.1 versus 55.0 preliminary
• Canada S&P services PMI 44.3 versus 50.5 last month
• Treasury Secretary Bessent: Trump has normalized the idea of a 15-20% tariff
• US September industrial production 0.1% versus 0.0% expected
• Microsoft lowers AI sales quotas.
• USDINR Technicals: The upside run in USDINR continues. Stretches toward the Fib extension
• ECB'sLagarde: Growth in economic activity should benefit from increased household spending
• US import prices 0.0% versus 0.1% expected. Export prices 0.0% versus 0.1% expected
• ADP National employment for November -32K vs 10K est.
• Stocks are higher, yields are lower and the USD is lower. How about the technicals?
• investingLive European FX news wrap: Swiss CPI misses again, USD falls as yields retreat

The USD is closing lower vs all the major currencies with the GBPUSD the biggest mover. The USD is still lower vs the CAD but only by -0.12%.

A snapshot of the changes vs the major currencies shows:

• EUR: -0.38%
• JPY -0.40%
• GBP -1.04%
• CHF -0.37%
• CAD -0.12%
• AUD -0.59%
• NZD -0.66%

The move lower was helped by weaker than expected ADP employment numbers. ADP reported a weaker-than-expected labor print for November, showing a 32,000 decline in private payrolls versus expectations for a modest gain. The prior month was revised up to 47,000, but November saw broad weakness across both goods-producing (-19K) and services (-13K) sectors. Small businesses remained under significant strain with a 120,000 job loss, marking negative readings in six of the past seven months, while medium and large firms added 51K and 39K, respectively. Industry detail showed strength in education (+30K) and leisure/hospitality (+13K), contrasted by notable declines in manufacturing (-18K), information (-20K), and professional/business services (-26K). Wage growth indicators continued to cool, with job changers seeing pay rise 4.4% (down from 4.5%) and job stayers rising 6.3% (down from 6.7%). Overall, the report pointed to a softening labor market, particularly among small firms and cyclical sectors.

In other data releases:

• The U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI edged up to 52.6 in November from 52.4, slightly above expectations and signaling continued, modest expansion in the services sector. Business activity improved to 54.5, and employment strengthened to 48.9, its best reading since May—though still below the 50 contraction line. New orders softened notably to 52.9, the weakest since September, while prices paid eased sharply to 65.4 from 70.0, suggesting some cooling in input inflation pressures. Other components showed broad stabilization, with backlogs, export orders, and imports all improving from the prior month. Respondent commentary pointed to persistent tariff-related uncertainty, mixed economic conditions, margin pressures, affordability challenges, and uneven demand across industries, though pockets of optimism remain as supply chains stabilize and some sectors finish the year with solid activity.
• U.S. industrial production in September rose 0.1%, matching a modest improvement but coming in just above expectations, while prior-month figures were revised notably lower, painting a softer underlying picture. Manufacturing output was flat on the month after an upward revision the prior month, underscoring uneven momentum across factory activity. Capacity utilization held at 75.9%, well below the 77.3% expected, reflecting continued slack in industrial capacity despite stable headline output. Looking through the monthly noise, industrial production increased at a 1.1% annual rate in the third quarter, though the downward revisions to August suggest the sector entered the fall period with less strength than previously reported. Overall, the report showed a mixed performance: modest growth in September offset by weaker historical data and continued underuse of manufacturing capacity.

The major stock indices close marginally higher led by the Dow industrial average with a gain of 0.80%. The broader S&P index was up by 0.30% while the NASDAQ index was up a marginal 0.17%.

In the US debt market, yields are lower in reaction to the weaker ADP report

• 2-year yield 3.485%, -3.0 basis points
• 5 year yield 3.629%, -3.0 basis points
• 10 year yield 4.063%, -2.5 basis points
• 30 year yield 4.728%, -1.2 basis points

Crude oil is higher by about $0.50 at $59.11. Gold is up $3.60 at $4209.37. The point rose an additional $2200.to $93,510. On Monday, the low price reached $83,814.