News
USD/CAD Mid-Day Outlook
More
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3721; (P) 1.3752; (R1) 1.3770; More… Outlook in USD/CAD is unchanged and intraday bias stays neutral. On the downside, firm break of 1.3725 support will complete a head and shoulder top (ls: 1.3878, h: 1.3923, rs: 1.3889). That would indicate that corrective rebound from 1.3538 has already completed, and turn near term […]
The post USD/CAD Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.
By: Isabella
Posted on : Sep 18 2025
Deep Dive: Is Lululemon Oversold?
More
The Daily Breakdown takes a closer look at Lululemon, which has falling sales but a historically low valuation. What’s next for LULU? Before we dive in, let’s make sure you’re set to receive The Daily Breakdown each morning. To keep getting our daily insights, all you need to do is log in to your eToro…
The post Deep Dive: Is Lululemon Oversold? appeared first on eToro.
By: Emily
Posted on : Sep 17 2025
US Tech forecast: the index hits a new all-time high on US inflation data
More
After completing a correction, the US Tech index resumed its upward movement and set a new all-time high. The US Tech forecast for next week is positive.
US Tech forecast: key trading points
- Recent data: US PPI for August declined by 0.1%
- Market impact: this is broadly positive for the US stock market, as it increases the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut
US Tech fundamental analysis
The US Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 0.1% m/m, below expectations of a 0.3% rise and after a 0.7% increase in the previous month. This indicates easing input cost pressure for real sector companies. Historically, PPI trends partially pass through to consumer inflation (CPI/PCE) with a lag, so the current result increases the likelihood of a smoother price trajectory in H2 and reduces the risk of secondary cost-driven inflationary effects.
US Producer Price Index (PPI) MoM: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/core-producer-prices-momFor financial markets, the main channel of influence lies in Fed policy expectations and bond yields. A weaker PPI reinforces dovish sentiment: the probability of a pause and/or earlier rate cuts rises, the term premium on Treasuries declines, and discount rates for future cash flows fall. This environment favours long-duration growth assets, particularly technology stocks. The US Tech index is statistically sensitive to lower yields, as a large share of its market capitalisation comes from companies with long growth horizons.
US Tech technical analysis
In the short term, the base case is moderate upside in the US Tech, driven by lower yields and improved risk-to-reward ratio for long-term growth stories. The strongest performance is typically shown by large platforms and high-quality software assets, alongside more volatile, unprofitable growth names. The sustainability of the rally, however, depends on confirmation of the inflation trend in consumer prices.
US Tech technical analysis for 12 September 2025The US Tech index broke above the previous resistance level at 23,875.0, with a new support line formed at 23,445.0. A new resistance level is yet to form. The uptrend will likely be medium-term, with the nearest upside target at 24,460.0.
The following scenarios are considered for the US Tech price forecast:
- Pessimistic US Tech scenario: a breakout below the 23,445.0 support level could send the index to 22,390.0
- Optimistic US Tech scenario: if the price consolidates above the previously breached resistance level at 23,875.0, the index could advance to 24,460.0
Summary
The PPI report eases inflation concerns and strengthens expectations of a more dovish Fed policy, creating a supportive backdrop for the US Tech index. Growth stocks benefit the most, while cyclical subsectors tied to end demand show a more restrained reaction. The nearest upside target is 24,460.0.
Open Account
By: Sarah Williams
Posted on : Sep 13 2025
US 30 forecast: the uptrend continues, but resistance has not yet been broken
More
After reaching a new all-time high, the trend in the US 30 index remains unstable. The US 30 forecast for today is positive.
US 30 forecast: key trading points
- Recent data: the US PMI for August came in at 55.5
- Market impact: for US equities, this result signals a cautious investor sentiment
US 30 fundamental analysis
The US unemployment rate stood at 4.3% in line with market forecasts but above 4.2% in July. From a macroeconomic perspective, this indicates a gradual cooling of the labour market: a moderate rise in unemployment eases wage pressure and reduces service-sector inflation. In terms of financial conditions, this is generally favourable, as expectations of a softer monetary policy path increase, Treasury yields tend to decline, and funding costs for companies decrease. At the same time, the fact that unemployment is rising points to a slower pace of economic growth.
For the US 30, the signal is mixed. If markets interpret the figure as evidence of a soft landing, we may see a short-term improvement in risk appetite driven by lower yields and stronger expectations of Fed easing. However, if focus shifts to risks for growth momentum, the index could show a more restrained performance given its heavy weighting in cyclical sectors.
US Unemployment Rate: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rateUS 30 technical analysis
The US 30 index once again shows signs of upward movement. The resistance level is seen at 45,790.0, while the support level is located around 44,590.0. However, persistently high volatility underlines the fragility of the current trend. Growth potential remains limited in the near term, and weak momentum increases the risk of a reversal towards the downside.
The US 30 price forecast considers the following scenarios:
- Pessimistic US 30 scenario: a breakout below the 44,590.0 support level could push the index down to 43,325.0
- Optimistic US 30 scenario: a breakout above the 45,790.0 resistance level could boost the index up to 46,595.0
Summary
From a Federal Reserve policy perspective, the unemployment figure meeting expectations while edging higher strengthens the case for a softer stance if labour market and inflation data continues to weaken. For equities, this means the short-term trajectory will depend on the balance of two forces: support from lower rates and the discount applied for slowing growth risks. The base case is a moderately neutral-to-positive reaction in the US 30 as yields decline, but with heightened sensitivity to upcoming labour and inflation releases. The next upside target stands at 46,595.0.
Open Account
By: Noah
Posted on : Sep 11 2025
Amazon (AMZN) Shares Jump Over 4%
More
Amazon (AMZN) shares were among the top gainers in the equity markets yesterday, rising more than 4% and closing above $235 for the first time since February 2025.
The rally was fuelled by reports that Kuiper – Amazon’s project aimed at providing internet access via a network of
By: Marcus Sinclair
Posted on : Sep 06 2025
Precious metals, real diversification
More
Key takeaways
- Gold and silver lead 2025; platinum followed. Miners magnified gains
- Drivers: rate-cut bets, central-bank demand, silver’s industrial pull, tight supply
- Risks: jurisdiction, cost inflation, execution, and volatility
Why metals are moving now
Gold hit a record at USD 3,547, up 34% year to date. The bid reflects expected September Fed cuts, questions over Fed independence, and a more fractured world. With long-end yields high and the dollar soft, bonds lost defensive appeal, shifting flows toward safe-haven commodities. Risks, however, remain: a hawkish Fed pivot, a sharp dollar rebound, a drop in long yields, or a positioning unwind. For the full run-down of drivers and challenge points, read: Gold breaks to fresh record as investors seek alternatives in a fractured world | Saxo. Silver finally cleared USD 40 for the first time since 2011. Platinum rallied through summer on China demand and supply discipline. For more, see: Silver powers past USD 40 to 14-year highs | Saxo. The common thread: softer real-rate expectations, steady central-bank buying, and silver’s tight balance from solar and electronics.
Under the bonnet: what’s driving strength
Real rates set the tone. When expected real yields fall, gold’s opportunity cost drops and demand improves. That bid often spills into silver and, with leverage, into miners. On fundamentals, silver’s industrial demand remains firm—photovoltaics, power electronics, and sensing—while mine supply grow slowly. Platinum has rebounded enough to lift many operations back above cash costs, but not enough to trigger new capacity. That supports prices. Positioning then did the rest: with few bulls on and tight physical markets, even modest buying pushed prices through resistance. When metal prices rise, miner shares often rise more because costs move slower than prices, so profits swing harder. Read more in Ole Hansen’s latest COT note, COT report: Modest gold and silver longs fuel breakout momentum | Saxo.
Know your levers: costs, gearing, ballast
AISC 101. All-in sustaining cost (AISC) wraps cash costs with sustaining capex and overhead. When prices outrun AISC, cash flow compounds fast—until it doesn’t. That is the essence of miner torque, earnings sensitivity to metal prices because costs move slower than prices.
Gearing 101. Gearing = financial leverage. Debt magnifies equity swings. Fixed interest costs make profits rise faster in upcycles—and fall harder in downcycles. In miners you get two levers: operating leverage (AISC vs price) and financial leverage (debt). Watch net debt/EBITDA, interest cover, maturity walls, and floating vs fixed rates. Low gearing cushions volatility; high gearing boosts “torque” but raises covenant and refinancing risk.
Metal ballast 101. “Ballast” = a stabiliser in a portfolio. Gold—and sometimes silver—tends to move differently from equities in stress. It pays no yield, so the “cost” is the foregone real return elsewhere. When real yields fall or the dollar softens, ballast strengthens. In policy or geopolitical shocks, bullion often falls less or even rises. That steadies total returns and gives you dry powder to rebalance.
Execution counts: cost discipline in focus
A strong tape rewards operators that keep costs in line:
- Agnico Eagle (AEM): record free cash flow, net cash, and reiterated 2025 cost and capex guidance.
- Pan American Silver (PAAS): dividend raised; still on track to meet 2025 production and cost guidance.
- Alamos Gold (AGI): sequential declines in cash costs and AISC drove record operating cash flow.
- Fresnillo (FRES LN): adjusted production costs fell about 20% year-on-year in H1; management flagged “rigorous cost discipline.”
- Impala Platinum (IMP SJ): reinstated a dividend and cut capex, signaling capital discipline as prices recovered.
- Valterra Platinum (VAL SJ): the Anglo American spin-out kept unit-cost focus and avoided aggressive growth despite the rally.
These are examples, not endorsements. Always re-underwrite mine-by-mine cost curves and jurisdiction risk.
What to watch
Macro: The Fed decision on 17 September 2025 and the path of real yields—gold’s primary headwind or tailwind. Micro: Q3 production updates from large gold, silver, and platinum (PGM) producers—watch grades, AISC, and sustaining capex. Physical: Silver’s supply-demand updates and PV installation trends, including any “thrifting” of silver loadings. Policy: Signals on Mexico’s permitting regime and South Africa’s power stabilisation—risk premia can change quickly.
The risk map: where it can bite
Country risk is real. Mexico tightened the mining regime in recent years, lengthening permitting and adding uncertainty for silver-heavy portfolios. Peru’s periodic unrest can clog logistics. In South Africa, platinum-group miners remain exposed to power reliability and policy shifts. Cost inflation persists in energy, labor, and consumables; it usually falls slower than metal prices in a pullback. Financing risk matters too. If prices wobble, equity and debt windows narrow fast for single-asset developers. The punchline: miners add diversification across macro factors, but concentration in a few countries can compound shocks.
Access points: metals vs miners You can own the metals for stability or the miners to magnify moves. Pairing both can smooth the ride.
- GDX (gold miners ETF)
- SIL (silver miners ETF)
Check fund factsheets for fees, holdings, and jurisdiction mix.
Bar chart comparing YTD returns of gold/silver/platinum vs their miners
Investor playbook
- Size the sleeve. Fix your allocation to mining/commodity to avoid chasing.
- Blend ballast and torque. Mix metal exposure with mining stocks or ETFs to balance stability and upside.
- Stress-test rates. Re-run theses at higher real yields and a slower Fed path.
- Audit country risk. Map holdings to Mexico, Peru, and South Africa. Track permits, power, labor and political stability.
- Use rules. Stage entries, rebalance on metal-to-miner gaps, and pre-define exits.
What it means for investors
The case for precious miners rests on two engines: gold’s macro hedge, and cost-disciplined miners that turn high metal prices into cash flow. In 2025, falling expected real yields and tight supply did the heavy lifting. The main risks are jurisdiction and sticky costs. The main drivers are central-bank policy and silver’s industrial pull.
Near-term, the Fed’s call on 17 September and miner updates on costs and grades will steer the narrative. Blend stability with upside. Define the risk, then let consistency compound. Your balance sets both risk and reward. After a strong run, entry prices are higher, so pullback risk rises even if the thesis holds.
By: Daniel Carter
Posted on : Sep 04 2025
Top 3 trade ideas for 2 September 2025
More
Trade ideas for EURGBP, USDCAD, and GBPUSD are available today. The ideas expire on 3 September 2025 at 8:00 AM (GMT +3).
EURGBP trade idea
The EURGBP rate remains in uncertainty, forming sideways consolidation on the intraday chart while actively testing resistance. Buying at current levels offers a poor risk-to-reward ratio. A breakout above the 0.8675 resistance level would confirm a bullish impulse, with an upside target at 0.8700. Today’s EURGBP trade idea suggests placing a pending Buy Limit order.
Market sentiment for EURGBP shows a bearish tilt – 62% vs 38%. The risk-to-reward ratio exceeds 1:3. Potential profit is 50 pips at the first take-profit target and 65 pips at the second, while possible losses are capped at 25 pips.
Trading plan
- Entry point: 0.8635
- Target 1: 0.8685
- Target 2: 0.8700
- Stop-Loss: 0.8610
Explore More Trade Ideas
USDCAD trade idea
The USDCAD rate maintains its upward momentum with no clear signs of completion. A short-term correction may occur but will not break the overall bullish trend. A breakout above 1.3775 would confirm the strength of the bullish impulse, with an upside target at 1.3850. The short-term RSI shows a positive signal, supporting further gains. Today’s USDCAD trade idea suggests placing a pending Buy Limit order.
Market sentiment for USDCAD shows a bearish bias – 54% vs 46%. The risk-to-reward ratio exceeds 1:2. Potential profit is 100 pips at the first take-profit target and 125 pips at the second, with possible losses limited to 50 pips.
Trading plan
- Entry point: 1.3725
- Target 1: 1.3825
- Target 2: 1.3850
- Stop-Loss: 1.3675
Explore More Trade Ideas
GBPUSD trade idea
The GBPUSD rate shows signs of forming a top, with a potential minor bearish correction. The short-term outlook remains moderately bullish, so buying on pullbacks with a tight stop appears justified in expectation of further growth. The support level lies at 1.3484. Today’s GBPUSD trade idea suggests placing a pending Buy Limit order.
Market sentiment for GBPUSD shows a strong bearish tilt – 75% vs 25%. The risk-to-reward ratio exceeds 1:7. Potential profit is 113 pips at the first take-profit target and 306 pips at the second, with possible losses capped at 40 pips.
Trading plan
- Entry point: 1.3484
- Target 1: 1.3597
- Target 2: 1.3790
- Stop-Loss: 1.3444
Explore More Trade Ideas
By: John Matthews
Posted on : Sep 03 2025
NZD/USD Daily Outlook: Bearish Momentum Continues
More
Introduction to NZD/USD The NZDUSD currency pair, commonly known as the “Kiwi,” measures the exchange rate between the New Zealand dollar and the US dollar. This pairing offers essential insights for forex traders and investors interested in the Asia-Pacific region’s economic health. The NZD/USD is particularly sensitive to global commodity prices, trade balance figures, and […]
The post NZD/USD Daily Outlook: Bearish Momentum Continues appeared first on UnitedPips Ltd.
By: Thomas Wallace
Posted on : Aug 29 2025
Has market made up its mind no matter what Nvidia delivers tonight?
More
Listen to the full episode now or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app.
Today’s links
Ole’s piece on Trouble at the Fed Supports Gold and silver. FTAlphaville article chiming in with headline of the day yesterday on the implications of Trump’s go at controlling the Fed: Pray for the US Treasury Market - Thank you for your attention to this matter.
After our Ole’s appearance on the MacroVoices podcast the prior week, one of our favourite and outspoken macro strategists Michael Every is out with an appearance on the podcast last week.
Found it! The Apple white paper suggesting the LLM’s (Large Language Models) used in AI are incapable of reason.
A Chat GPT prompt for all US defense companies with a market cap of USD 5 billion or more (can’t vouch for quality of results, but probably 90%+ of relevant names) if you are interested in delving into the kinds of names that the US government might like equity stakes in after US Commerce Secretary Lutnick’s comments on investing public equity in defense companies yesterday.
Tenth time was the charm as Starship 10 succeeds on all parameters - watch the spectacular launch here. Still needs many repeats and much heavier payloads to prove that it is reliable after so many birthing pains to date. Oh another thing - not sure what it will be useful for except for robots and large scientific launches into deeper space as humans are never leaving earth anytime soon, least of all to live on Mars, which they can’t.
Saxo Equity Strategist Ruben Dalfovo previews Nvidia earnings and CrowdStrike earnings reports with a long-term investor perspective.
Chart of the Day - Alphabet (GOOGL) broadening top?
A great test of a spectacular technical formation in coming days and weeks will be whether the classic broadening top formation that is forming in Alphabet’s stock price will resolve into a bull extension or bearish setup for the stock. According to pattern legend Charles Bukowski (that book is a favorite of mine), the bearish entry works more than the bullish one and is on a third touch of the rising line of tops, but it is not considered one of the better patterns. One of the problems with a formation like a broadening top is that it requires so many touch points to come out perfect. As you can see in the chart below the last time Alphabet was in a major bear market, it was on the heels of a broadening top pattern that didn’t quite complete the third top trend touch before selling off. Set for a repeat this time? We’ll see…
Questions and comments, please!
We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at [email protected].By: Noah
Posted on : Aug 28 2025
US 500 forecast: after rebounding from support, the index aims to hit its new all-time high
More
The US 500 remains in an uptrend, with quotes poised to break above the resistance level. The US 500 forecast for today is positive.
US 500 forecast: key trading points
- Recent data: US initial jobless claims came in at 235 thousand last week
- Market impact: this has a dual effect on the US stock market
US 500 fundamental analysis
US initial jobless claims stood at 235 thousand last week, above the forecast of 226 thousand and the previous reading of 224 thousand. The rise in claims indicates some weakening of the labour market. Higher applications may signal a slowdown in economic activity.
Signs of labour market cooling can ease pressure on the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy further, supporting expectations of stable or even lower interest rates. For the US 500, this data may trigger a mixed reaction in the short term. The technology and growth sectors may benefit, as they gain from prospects of looser monetary policy, while consumer-focused sectors may come under pressure due to expectations of weaker purchasing power.
United States Initial Jobless Claims: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/jobless-claimsUS 500 technical analysis
After reaching an all-time high, the US 500 continued to strengthen, forming a solid uptrend. The current support zone is at 6,360.0, while the nearest resistance is at 6,485.0. The most likely scenario remains further growth with a target near 6,605.0.
The following scenarios are considered for the US 500 price forecast:
- Pessimistic US 500 scenario: a breakout below the 6,360.0 support level could push the index down to 6,210.0
- Optimistic US 500 scenario: a breakout above the 6,485.0 resistance level could drive the index to 6,605.0
Summary
Overall, the jobless claims data point to a gradual cooling of the labour market, which increases uncertainty but may act as a factor preventing the Fed from taking aggressive action. This creates a mixed impact on the US 500: technology and capital-intensive companies stand to benefit, while consumer and financial sectors could face more pressure. From a technical perspective, the US 500 will likely continue to rise towards 6,605.0.
Open Account
By: Noah
Posted on : Aug 27 2025