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Introduction to USD/CHF The USD/CHF pair – often nicknamed the “Swissie” – tracks how many Swiss francs are needed to buy one US dollar. It is a classic safe-haven vs. reserve-currency cross and a favorite for risk sentiment trades. Because both economies are highly liquid and policy-sensitive, USD-CHF daily analysis often reacts quickly to Federal […]

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Introduction to EURGBP The EUR/GBP pair, commonly known among traders as “Chunnel,” reflects the exchange rate between the Euro and the British Pound. As a critical indicator of economic health in Europe and the UK, this currency pair is heavily influenced by economic policies from the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England […]

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1459; (P) 1.1496; (R1) 1.1520; More… EUR/USD’s decline is in progress and intraday bias stays on the downside for 100% projection of 1.1917 to 1.1540 from 1.1727 at 1.1350. Decisive break there would prompt downside acceleration to 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.1917 at 1.1252. On the upside, above 1.1540 minor resistance […]

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Stock Markets Lower, Japanese Yen Gains on Selloff; RBA Holds Rates, Says Possible No More Cuts; US Dollar Retreats from 3-Month High; Case on Legality of US President's Tariffs Due Wednesday

The Daily Breakdown takes a closer look at the week ahead, with Palantir and AMD earnings due up. Amazon breaks out to record highs. Before we dive in, let’s make sure you’re set to receive The Daily Breakdown each morning. To keep getting our daily insights, all you need to do is log in to…

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Analyst Weekly,  November 3, 2025 Trade Diplomacy: US’s “Asia Blitz” Targets China While D.C. argued over spending, the US administration was busy redrawing Asia’s trade map. Deals were done with Malaysia, Cambodia, Vietnam, and Thailand, all carrying provisions designed to curb China’s influence, from banning goods made with forced labor to tightening export controls on…

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As expected, the Federal Reserve yesterday cut the Federal Funds Rate from 4.25% to 4.00%

US Federal Reserve, Bank of Canada Both Strongly Expected to Cut by 0.25%; Bank of Japan Policy Meeting Tomorrow; Stocks Advance to New Record Highs; Australian Inflation Rises Unexpectedly; President Trump Departs Japan for Korea

The US 500 index rebounded from its previous decline and set a new all-time high following U.S. inflation data. The forecast for US 500 today is positive.

US 500 forecast: key trading points

• Recent data: U.S. S&P Global Composite PMI (preliminary, October) came in at 54.8
• Market impact: the data are generally positive for the U.S. equity market

US 500 fundamental analysis

The U.S. S&P Global Composite PMI rose to 54.8, exceeding both the forecast (53.5) and the previous reading (53.9). This indicates an acceleration in overall economic activity across both manufacturing and services sectors.

For the stock market, such data represent a pro-cyclical signal: stronger growth supports expectations for corporate revenues and operating leverage, reduces the probability of a recession scenario, and typically contributes to narrowing credit spreads. At the same time, the acceleration in PMI carries a potential inflationary risk through stronger employment and wage dynamics.

For the US 500 index, the conclusion is moderately positive, though with possible sector rotation within the index. In a scenario of “strong PMI without a significant rise in bond yields,” the main beneficiaries are likely to be cyclical sectors — industrials, materials, consumer discretionary, and financials — benefiting from improved demand outlook and margin expansion.

US 500 technical analysis

The US 500 index has renewed its all-time high for three consecutive sessions — marking the 34th record high this year. Support has formed at 6,655.0, while resistance at 6,760.0 has been broken, with a new resistance level yet to form. Prices continue to rise confidently, though a short-term correction without a trend reversal remains possible. The next potential upside target is near 6,955.0.

Scenarios for the US 500 price forecast:

• Pessimistic forecast for US 500: if the support level at 6,655.0 is broken, prices may fall to 6,540.0
• Optimistic forecast for US 500: if consolidation above the recently broken resistance at 6,760.0 holds, prices may rise toward 6,955.0

Summary

Overall, the stronger-than-expected PMI release lowers the recession risk premium and supports US 500 valuations through improved profit expectations. However, the index’s near-term trajectory will depend on whether stronger activity translates into higher inflation expectations and yields, which directly affect the cost of capital.

If reports confirming the end of the U.S. government shutdown coincide with favorable data on prices and wages, the index could gain further momentum on improving market sentiment. From a technical standpoint, the US 500 may rise toward 6,955.0.

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