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Understanding BTC/USD Daily Market Trends
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Introduction to BTC-USD BTCUSD, commonly referred to as “digital gold,” is the currency pair that shows Bitcoin’s value against the US Dollar. It is among the most traded cryptocurrency pairs globally, highly influenced by market sentiment and economic news from the US. Monitoring BTC/USD helps traders gauge market sentiment towards cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin, against traditional […]
The post Understanding BTC/USD Daily Market Trends appeared first on UnitedPips Ltd.
By: John Matthews
Posted on : May 10 2025
Copper market navigates tariff uncertainty amid tight global supply
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Key points:
- Copper prices remain rangebound as markets await a US decision on potential tariffs which has already disrupted global trade, triggering a sustained drop in non-US stockpiles, especially in China where demand remains strong.
- Concerns are rising that a build-up of copper stockpiles in the US ahead of the tariffs will leave the rest of the world undersupplied of this key transition metals amid rising demand for power and its main conductor.
- The market is expected to stay supported despite trade war related growth concerns, with downside risks being countered by supply constraints and firm demand.
The copper market continues to trade within a wide range, with some of the price action being driven by market participants trying to preempt what tariff level, if any, the US Commerce Department eventually will recommend the Trump administration apply on US imports. Just like steel and aluminium, Trump has threatened to impose a 25% duty on all copper imports—a move that could roil the global market for one of the world’s most important metals—not least considering a robust demand outlook, recently further enhanced by an energy transition which is expected to increase demand for a key conductor of power towards EVs, AI-related data centres, and cooling as parts of the world continue to get warmer.
The tariffs, designed to protect local producers and foster increased US production and refining capacity, would, however, leave US manufacturers paying much more for their metal than rivals overseas. The probe launched in February under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act is now expected to be ready within weeks, well ahead of the 270-day deadline, and the eventual announcement is very likely to trigger a major price adjustment in the market—not least in the spread between London and New York copper—which reflects the market's attempt to guess the eventual tariff level. Following a slump in early April to 6%, the spread has been hovering around 15% before declining to a current level around 8.5%. The spread is currently coming down amid strong demand in China, reflected by an ongoing slump in stockpiles monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the highest premium for imported copper since December 2023. Overall, an ongoing decline in copper stocks monitored by the futures exchanges in London and Shanghai has only been partly offset by a rise in New York, albeit stockpiles there has risen to a six-year high driven by hoarding ahead of the mentioned tariff announcement. China has seen the biggest reduction during the past ten weeks, with SHFE-monitored stockpiles down 67% to just 89 kt.
The market worries that the current flow of copper heading towards the US ahead of the tariff announcement will be left stranded there until consumed, thereby exacerbating an already tight global market into the second half of 2025. By Q3 2025, Goldman Sachs estimates 45-60% of global reported copper inventories could be in the US, which accounts for just 6% of global refined demand—leaving the rest of the world with very low stocks of this important transition metal.
This tightness, albeit a function of trade dislocation, may in the coming months discourage new short positions driven by trade war-related growth worries from entering the market, thereby limiting the downside to the copper price through 2025.
The high-grade copper future has settled into a wide range, with USD 4 per pound having proved to offer support on numerous occasions, while the latest upside spike was mostly related to the tariff probe briefly driving the HG premium over London above 16%. In the short term, the London Metal Exchange (LME) contract offers a better insight into the global supply and demand outlook, which, according to Zijin Mining Investment Shanghai, a unit of China’s top copper miner, is currently being underpinned by the mentioned strength in China, where apparent demand growth is running near double-digit levels this year, driven by strong orders from State Grid Corp, the world’s single largest buyer of copper, and rising production of copper-intensive goods such as air-conditioning units to electric vehicles.Key takeaways from recent company earnings update
Copper producers are leaning into the structural tightness expected to emerge once the current surplus dissipates. 2025 guidance across the peer group points to mid-single-digit production growth and broadly stable unit costs, while almost every management team is accelerating de-bottlenecking or brownfield expansions rather than green-field megaprojects. Shareholder returns remain healthy, but CAPEX is inching higher as electrification-driven demand (AI data-centres, grid revamps, EVs) keeps long-cycle price expectations firm at or above USD 4 per pound. Political risk (U.S. tariff probe, Chile/Peru permitting), power availability and water stress are the main swing factors for 2026-28. With the supply wave cresting and demand accelerants such as AI/data-centre electrification piling on, copper-centric miners with shovel-ready brownfield growth and robust cost positions look well placed for the next leg higher.Recent commodity articles:
7 May 2025: Agriculture markets diverge as trade war weather and speculators reshape landscape
6 May 2025: Crude climbs as market digests OPEC hike and shale slowdown risks
6 May 2025: Gold rises as Chinese demand rebounds post-holiday
5 May 2025: COT Report: Dollar-selling persists; Crude length trimmed ahead of OPEC output hike
1 May 2025: Gold corrects sharply from record highs as Chinese demand pauses
29 April 2025: Copper navigates energy transition supply shocks and market turmoil
28 April 2025: COT Report: Continued gold selling; USD weakness drives record JPY long
25 April 2025: Commodities weekly Energy slump overshadows strength in gold and agriculture
23 April 2025: Blowout top leaves Gold in consolidation mode
22 April 2025: Commodities return Why allocation matters
16 April 2025: Whats next as gold hits our USD 3300 target
15 April 2025: COT Reports show hedge funds racing to cash post-Liberation Day
11 April 2025: Commodities weekly As chaos reigns whats next for markets
10 April 2025: YouTube Interview: Gold, silver, copper, oil - prices, supply, demand in 2025
8 April 2025: Golds deleveraging pullback fails to shake supportive outlook
8 April 2025: Golds deleveraging pullback fails to shake supportive outlook
7 April 2025: COT on Forex and Commodities - April 7 2025
4 April 2025: Commodities weekly Tariff-led recession pain triggers sharp reversal
3 April 2025: Tariff-related recession fears ignite widespread commodities selloff
2 April 2025: Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty
31 Mch 2025: COT Report: Ongoing USD selling amid mixed week for commodities
26 Mch 2025: Commodities show strength in Q1, led by a select few
Podcasts that include commodities focus:
6 May 2025: Bears hang in at key levels as Palantir rides the retail whirlwind
23 April 2025: Trump going soft on tariffs versus the direction of travel.
11 April 2025: US and China are slipping into an economic war
4 April 2025: Markets melts down as recession risks go global
1 April 2025: Bracing for Liberation Day
By: Lucas Bennett
Posted on : May 09 2025
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook
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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1306; (P) 1.1344; (R1) 1.1407; More… Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral at this point. On the downside, below 1.1265 will resume the corrective fall from 1.1572 short term top. But downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.1572 at 1.1039. On the upside, break of 1.1424 will suggest […]
The post EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.
By: Lucas Bennett
Posted on : May 08 2025
Forex Today: Asian Stocks Continue Rally - 06 May 2025
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Nikkei 225, HSI, KOSPI Continue Month-Long Advance; US Dollar Makes Minor Gains; Bitcoin Remains Suppressed by Resistance
By: Thomas Wallace
Posted on : May 07 2025
Key Stories from the past week: Stocks climb on trade war optimism
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It has been the busiest week of the earnings season with 180 companies from S&P500 and 91 companies Euro Stoxx 600 reporting. Overall earnings continue to look solid, while the near-term outlook looks cloudier as tariff concerns still dominate headlines. Big week of reporting from Big Tech Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Apple all reported this week setting the tone for investor confidence across the globe and boosting US benchmarks. AI spend remains a focus with no signs of capex fatigue, but tariff risks encourage caution. Big Tech Earnings Obesity drug war intensifies Eli Lilly sales soared 45% on weight loss drug demand, but the shares still fell 12% as CVS Health Corp announced a plan to drop Lilly weight-loss drug Zepbound from its preferred list, making rival Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy more widely available. Novo Nordisk strike back Tariff uncertainty blights the car manufacturers General Motors Q1 results beat estimates but the car maker is forced to suspend guidance and pause buybacks due to tariff uncertainty. Stellantis and Mercedes-Benz follow General Motors in deciding to withdraw outlooks. Volkswagen, who reported an earnings drop of 40% YoY, did offer a forecast of 5% sales growth in 2025. This does not include any impact from tariffs recently announced. Trump softens blow of automotive tariffs Market activity boosts bank earnings Several European banks published strong Q1 earnings aided by recent market volatility and through cost saving measures. HSBC reported Q1 pretax profit $9.48bn, above estimates, with $3bn buyback and restructuring to save $1.8bn over two years. Deustche Bank reported highest profit in 14 years with the group is on track for delivery on all 2025 targets. Other banks to beat were UBS, Soc Gen, ING Groep, Barclays, Standard Chartered. UBS profit boosted by 'huge' spike in client activity, but uncertainty looms Next week markets will zero in on policy rate decisions from the Fed on Wednesday and BoE of Thursday. The former is expected hold steady, while the latter is fully priced for a 25bps cut. China will publish a trade report on Friday which will likely show an initial hit from the escalating trade war. Earnings season also rolls on with the like of Palantir on Monday, AMD on Tuesday, and Novo Nordisk, Uber, Disney and Arm Holdings all on Wednesday.
By: Jaxon Maddox
Posted on : May 03 2025
META Share Price Rises Cautiously Ahead of Earnings Report
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As shown on the Meta Platforms (META) chart, the share price rose by approximately 1% yesterday. This movement was supported by the announcement of the launch of the Meta AI app—an artificial intelligence-based application that will function as a personal assistant on mobile phones (similar to Google Gemini)
By: Lucas Bennett
Posted on : May 01 2025
Australia CPI expected to weaken further in Q1, paving way for rate cut in May
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Australia will release multiple inflation figures on Wednesday and financial markets anticipate price pressures easing further at the beginning of 2025, paving the way for additional Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate cuts.
By: Thomas Wallace
Posted on : Apr 30 2025
"Iran Dangles 'Trillion Dollar' Incentive For Trump in Deal Talks"
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Bloomberg (gated) with the report, in brief:
- Iran is pitching a “trillion-dollar” investment opportunity to the US amid nuclear talks, aiming to ease sanctions and attract American industries to its energy and nuclear sectors.
- Tehran’s economic struggles have made it more open to cooperation, but corruption and deep mistrust still cloud the negotiations.
- The US insists Iran cannot develop nuclear weapons, keeping the final outcome uncertain.
Bloomberg cite unnamed sources.
If some sort of deal is reached it may prompt further oil supply to market.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.By: Jaxon Maddox
Posted on : Apr 29 2025
Newsquawk Week Ahead 28th April-2nd May 2025
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Newsquawk Week Ahead 28th April-2nd May 2025 Highlights: 28th April-2nd May 2025 Newsquawk Highlights include US NFP, ISM Mfg. PMI, PCE, GDP, BoJ, EZ CPI,...
By: Daniel Carter
Posted on : Apr 26 2025
US500 Price Action Near Upper Band
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S&P 500 Fed Speech Volatility Ahead The US500 CFD, more widely known as the S&P 500 Index and nicknamed “the Spoos” in futures pits, is the marquee gauge of U.S. equity performance and is quoted in forex platforms against the U.S. dollar. Heading into today’s session, sentiment hinges on a heavy U.S. macro docket: Cleveland […]
The post US500 Price Action Near Upper Band appeared first on Capitalcore LLC.
By: Daniel Carter
Posted on : Apr 24 2025