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EUR/USD dives 0.17% during the North American session on Friday as the Greenback trims its earlier losses as US President Donald Trump tempered his trade rhetoric on China. The pair trades at around 1.1666 after hitting a daily high of 1.1728.

After a nearly 8% decline, the JP 225 stock index has retained potential for further growth, although a sideways movement appears more likely in the short term. The forecast for JP 225 today is negative.

JP 225 forecast: key trading points

• Recent data: Japan’s industrial production decreased by 1.5% month-on-month in August
• Market impact: the effect is negative for the Japanese stock market

JP 225 fundamental analysis

Fresh industrial production data from Japan showed a decline of 1.5% month-on-month, compared with the forecast of -1.2% and the previous reading of -1.2%. This indicates that the manufacturing sector is losing momentum faster than expected. Such a downturn typically reflects weaker capacity utilisation, more cautious purchasing and investment decisions by management, and possible inventory accumulation among firms.

For the JP 225 index, the main influence channel is through corporate earnings expectations. Large Japanese corporations, particularly in capital goods, industrial equipment, electronics, and chemicals, are sensitive to global demand fluctuations and investment cycles. A fall in output raises the likelihood of lower sales volumes and margin pressure. If this weakness persists, corporate managements may revise their annual forecasts downwards, which could weigh on consensus profit expectations and valuations of these companies’ shares.

JP 225 technical analysis

The JP 225 index has fallen by nearly 8%, yet the overall trend remains upward. However, before any resumption of growth, the index will likely trade within a sideways channel. The support level is located around 44,295.0, while resistance lies at 48,695.0.

The following scenarios are considered for the JP 225 price forecast:

• Pessimistic JP 225 scenario: a breakout below the 44,295.0 support level could push the index down to 43,105.0
• Optimistic JP 225 scenario: a breakout above the 48,695.0 resistance level could drive the index to 50,415.0

Summary

In the short term, given the unexpectedly weak data, the JP 225 will likely face increased volatility and moderate downward pressure. The extent of the move will depend on the flow of daily news: if the yen weakens simultaneously, part of the decline could be offset by the strong weighting of exporters in the index. More pronounced and sustained weakness may occur in segments tied to domestic industrial demand and logistics. The next downside target for the JP 225 is at 43,105.0.

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Japan PPI, AKA Corporate Goods Price Index:

+2.7% y/y

• expected +2.5%, prior +2.7%

+0.3% m/m

• expected +0.1%, prior -0.2%

After reaching a new all-time high, the US 30 index trend remains fragile. The outlook for today is positive.

US 30 forecast: key trading points

• Recent data: US JOLTS Job Openings for September came in at 7.23M
• Market impact: confirms economic resilience and revenue support for cyclical companies

US 30 fundamental analysis

The JOLTS report showed 7.23M job openings versus a forecast of 7.19M and 7.21M in the previous month. This points to sustained labour demand and underlines the resilience of the job market. Although the increase was modest, it reduces the likelihood of a swift easing of labour market tightness and could maintain upward pressure on wages and core services inflation.

The small upside surprise strengthens the case for the Federal Reserve to take a cautious approach to policy easing. Expectations for aggressive rate cuts in the near term have diminished, while long-term bond yields may stay elevated. This increases the sensitivity of equity markets to rate dynamics and inflation expectations.

US 30 technical analysis

The US 30 index continues to trade in an uptrend, marking fresh record highs. Resistance is set at 46,500.0, while support lies at 45,685.0. Elevated volatility highlights the fragility of the current trend, and near-term upside potential remains capped.

The US 30 price forecast considers the following scenarios:

• Pessimistic case: if support at 45,685.0 breaks, the index could decline to 44,925.0
• Optimistic case: if resistance at 46,500.0 is breached, the index may rise to 47,250.0

Summary

For an index heavily weighted toward industrials, financials, and consumer companies, the reaction will likely be neutral to moderately positive, supported by signs of resilient activity and demand. However, higher bond yields could limit gains and amplify intraday volatility. In the near term, the index may show relative stability compared to more rate-sensitive benchmarks, with performance shaped by Treasury yield movements and Fed commentary. The next upside target is 46,595.0.

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