News

Bitcoin Shows Extremely Strong Bullish Momentum, Powering as High as $122,000; Silver Rises Very Strongly to New 13-Year High Above $39.10; Stock Markets Lower to Mixed After Trump Announces 30% Tariff on EU, Mexico

• Canada May employment change +83.1K vs 0.0K expected
• Canada building permits for May 12.0% versus -0.8% estimate
• Fed's Goolsbee: Latest tariff threat could delay rate cuts
• US June federal budget budget +27 billion vs -11.0 billion expected
• Brazil's Lula: If US tariffs take effect, we will reciprocate
• Trump says "we will see" on Canada tariff carve outs
• Where is this talk of Powell resigning coming from?

Markets:

• Gold up $33 to $3355
• US 10-year yields up 7.1 bps to 4.42%
• WTI crude oil up $2.14 to $68.71
• S&P 500 down 0.3%
• USD leads, JPY lags

We went into the day waiting for Trump's letter to the EU with a higher tariff rate but it has yet to arrive. Reports late in the day are mixed with some saying there are no meetings planned for the weekend and others highlighting sticking points around agriculture and autos. All the reports highlight that any deal hinges on the whims of the President.

The market has its own ideas and they were underscored by CAD trading the past 24 hours. The loonie dropped on Trump's surprise 35% tariff on Canada but the move was relatively small and retraced in large part from the spike highs. Similarly, BRL is only moderately down from levels before Trump's 50% tariff announcement this week. In short, the market doesn't believe the tariffs will happen at the Aug 1 deadline.

That's part of the reason the euro was down just 20 pips on the day and USD/CAD up 40 pips. Also in the case of the latter, the June Canada jobs report was sparkling with strong employment growth and a surprise dip in the jobless rate.

One notable move on the day was USD/JPY as it continues to get a tailwind from a rebound in Treasury yields, fears of tariffs on Japan's export-sensitive sectors and Japan's upcoming lower house election. The pair was steadily bid from Asian trade as is poised to finish near the weekly highs.

Cable was also soft on the day, finishing 90 pips lower and underperforming the euro despite the tariff worries. Cable hit stops below 1.3520 and continued another 35 pips lower to the worst levels since June 22.

The US dollar side is also notable on slipping Fed rate cut hopes. The combination of stock markets at record highs, tariffs, an immigration crackdown and the budget bill are all inflationary and there is some angst about next week's CPI report.

Have a great weekend everyone. I'm taking a few weeks off for an extended vacation but I will be back with a vengeance in no time.

Bitcoin Briefly Trades at a New All-Time High, Trend Traders Awaiting More Decisive Breakout; Copper Remains Bullish as Trump Imposes 50% Tariff; Trump Announces 50% Tariff on Brazil, Real Reels; NASDAQ 100 Touches New High; US Dollar, Silver Bullish on Tariff Uncertainty; FOMC Minutes Show Fed Split on July Rate Cut

Introduction to NZD-USD The NZDUSD pair, often referred to as the “Kiwi,” represents the exchange rate between the New Zealand Dollar and the US Dollar. It is a popular major currency pair known for its sensitivity to global risk sentiment, commodity prices—particularly dairy exports—and interest rate differentials between New Zealand and the United States. Movements […]

The post NZDUSD Analysis: Economic Drivers and Technical Outlook appeared first on UnitedPips Ltd.

USDJPY: ⬆️ Buy – USDJPY reversed from long-term support level 142.50 – Likely to rise to resistance level 148.00 USDJPY currency pair recently reversed up from the support zone located between the long-term support level 142.50 (which has been steadily.

Japan wages data, May 2025

• real wages dropped 2.9% year-on-year in May, the sharpest fall in nearly two years, the fifth consecutive monthly decline in inflation-adjusted wages
• nominal wages rose 1.0% (expected +2.4%, prior +2.0%), the slowest pace since March 2024, the decline was largely due to an 18.7% drop in special (bonus) payments
• regular base pay and overtime earnings also slowed

The broader wage data has yet to reflect record pay gains agreed during this year’s spring labour negotiations. Many smaller firms—without unions—are slower to implement hikes.

Despite a surge in household spending in May (May household spending +4.7% y/y (expected +1.2%, prior -0.1%), concerns persist that upcoming U.S. tariffs on Japanese exports could dent corporate profits and hinder future wage growth, complicating the Bank of Japan’s path to normalising interest rates.

Silver (XAG/USD) holds steady below the $37.00 mark during the Asian session on Friday and remains within striking distance of over a two-week high touched the previous day.

Westpac have popped up a piece summarising three key themes that have emerged from the European Central Bank's annual conference in Sintra that concluded on Wedneday:

1. Asia and the West have different responses to the trade shock
2. The decline of US dollar dominance will be slow
3. Reliance on the neutral rate offers diminishing returns

On that second point,the note from WPAC says, in brief:

• Shift from the US dollar as a reserve currency will be gradual, driven by global uncertainty and lack of a clear alternative.

• ECB President Lagarde said the euro could play a larger reserve role, but this requires:

  • Stronger geopolitical and legal foundations in Europe

  • Deeper capital markets supported by a robust European economy

  • A long-term process with no quick fixes

• Bank of Korea Governor Rhee reinforced the gradual theme, citing:

  • Recent Korean won strength reflects domestic political stability, not just USD weakness

  • Increased hedging ratios by domestic fund managers have supported currencies like the won, Taiwanese dollar, and Japanese yen

CHFJPY: ⬆️ Buy – CHFJPY broke long-term resistance level 180.00 – Likely to rise to resistance level 185.00 CHFJPY currency pair continues to rise after the pair broke above the long-term resistance level 180.00 (former yearly high from the middle.

As the chart shows, the Nikkei 225 stock index (Japan 225 on FXOpen) has risen above the psychological level of 40,000 points — for the first time in five months.

Bullish drivers include:

→ Reduced geopolitical risks. A ceasefire between Iran and Israel has boosted market sentiment, with stock