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The US 500 remains in an uptrend, with quotes poised to break above the resistance level. The US 500 forecast for today is positive.

US 500 forecast: key trading points

• Recent data: US initial jobless claims came in at 235 thousand last week
• Market impact: this has a dual effect on the US stock market

US 500 fundamental analysis

US initial jobless claims stood at 235 thousand last week, above the forecast of 226 thousand and the previous reading of 224 thousand. The rise in claims indicates some weakening of the labour market. Higher applications may signal a slowdown in economic activity.

Signs of labour market cooling can ease pressure on the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy further, supporting expectations of stable or even lower interest rates. For the US 500, this data may trigger a mixed reaction in the short term. The technology and growth sectors may benefit, as they gain from prospects of looser monetary policy, while consumer-focused sectors may come under pressure due to expectations of weaker purchasing power.

US 500 technical analysis

After reaching an all-time high, the US 500 continued to strengthen, forming a solid uptrend. The current support zone is at 6,360.0, while the nearest resistance is at 6,485.0. The most likely scenario remains further growth with a target near 6,605.0.

The following scenarios are considered for the US 500 price forecast:

• Pessimistic US 500 scenario: a breakout below the 6,360.0 support level could push the index down to 6,210.0
• Optimistic US 500 scenario: a breakout above the 6,485.0 resistance level could drive the index to 6,605.0

Summary

Overall, the jobless claims data point to a gradual cooling of the labour market, which increases uncertainty but may act as a factor preventing the Fed from taking aggressive action. This creates a mixed impact on the US 500: technology and capital-intensive companies stand to benefit, while consumer and financial sectors could face more pressure. From a technical perspective, the US 500 will likely continue to rise towards 6,605.0.

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Japan's CSPI, or services PPI +2.9% y/y in August

• expected +3.2%, prior +3.2%

For the m/m +0.3%

• prior -0.2%

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The post Why is investing in the S&P 500 riskier today? appeared first on eToro.

Earlier, when analysing the chart of the UK’s FTSE 100 stock index (UK 100 on FXOpen), we outlined an ascending channel and anticipated a scenario with a continued upward trend and an attempt to establish a new historical high.

Since then: → The index has risen by almost

EUR/USD edges lower after registering slight gains in the previous session, trading around 1.1640 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The Euro (EUR) depreciates against the US Dollar (USD) ahead of HCOB Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data from Germany and the Eurozone.

Citibank: ⬆️ Buy – Citibank reversed from support zone – Likely to rise to resistance level 95.60 Citibank recently reversed from the support area between the round support level 90.00 (which has been reversing the price from July) and the.

The US 500 remains in an uptrend, which is highly likely to become medium-term. The US 500 forecast for today is positive.

US 500 forecast: key trading points

• Recent data: the US Producer Price Index (PPI) came in at 0.9% in July
• Market impact: rising producer costs have a negative effect on the US stock market

US 500 fundamental analysis

The US PPI for July rose by 0.9% from the previous month, well above the forecast of 0.2% and the previous reading of 0.0%. PPI growth is a significant signal, as it reflects higher producer costs, which may be passed on to the end consumer. Overall, this strengthens inflationary pressure and increases the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will adopt a more hawkish stance in monetary policy.

Higher financing rates, in turn, can negatively affect the equity market by making stocks less attractive than bonds and increasing borrowing costs for businesses. For the US 500 index, the effect of such data is likely to be restrictive. Stronger inflation expectations could trigger a correction in the index, particularly in rate-sensitive sectors.

US 500 technical analysis

Having reached an all-time high, the US 500 index continued its upward trajectory. Current price action indicates the formation of an uptrend. The support level is located at 6,360.0, with resistance near 6,485.0. The most probable scenario is a continued upward move, with a potential target around 6,605.0.

The following scenarios are considered for the US 500 price forecast:

• Pessimistic US 500 scenario: a breakout below the 6,360.0 support level could push the index down to 6,210.0
• Optimistic US 500 scenario: a breakout above the 6,485.0 resistance level could drive the index to 6,605.0

Summary

Overall, the PPI data increases risks for the US stock market and could trigger short-term downward pressure on the US 500. However, the reaction will largely depend on further Federal Reserve signals regarding the future path of interest rates. From a technical perspective, the US 500 is set to extend gains towards 6,605.0.

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Dow Jones: ⬇️ Sell – Dow Jones reversed from strong resistance level 45000.00 – Likely to fall to support level 44500.00 Dow Jones index recently reversed down from the resistance zone located between the strong resistance level 45000.00 (which has.

Trump:

• "We have a very good chance of getting there. We didn't get there but we have a very good chance of getting there."
• We made great progress
• Just a few points left. One point not agreed to is significant. Very good chance of getting there
• There is no deal until there is a deal
• Ultimately, it's up to NATO and Ukraine to agree
• Probably will see Putin again soon

Putin:

• Russia-US investment partnership has huge potential
• All root causes of conflict must be eliminated, and all of Russia's concerns must be taken into account
• Trump is personally interested in resolving the Ukraine conflict

It was a short press conference with no questions. With the usual Trump puffery, it's hard to tell if they made any real progress on peace in Ukraine.

Perhaps the most notable deal was the Putin spoke briefly in english. Trump was talking about meeting Putin again and the Russian President said "next time in Moscow".