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The dollar's next move hinges on tonight's Fed decision, and this time markets genuinely don't know what to expect.

• Prior was 106.6
• 12-month median inflation expectations 2.7% vs 2.8% prior

I guess all the South Korean traders blowing up on SK Hynix haven't hit confidence yet. That's fair enough, given that it peaked on June 25.

EUR/USD stayed in consolidations above 1.1323 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Outlook stays bearish with 11499 support turned resistance intact. On the downside, break of 1.1323 will resume the fall from 1.2081 to 100% projection of 1.2081 to 1.1408 from 1.1848 at 1.1175. However, decisive break of […]

The post EUR/USD Weekly Outlook appeared first on ActionForex.

Trade ideas for EURGBP, GBPCHF, and XAGUSD are available today. The ideas expire on 24 July 2026 at 11:00 PM (GMT +3).

EURGBP trade idea

The EURGBP rate remains under selling pressure, although the slowdown in the downward momentum indicates a possible shift in short-term sentiment. Buyers are gradually strengthening their positions. The EURGBP pair has found support at 0.8520. This level is further reinforced by the 50 EMA located there on the four-hour chart. Despite continued bearish pressure in the medium term, the current structure indicates the possibility of further recovery. Holding above 0.8520 may open the way for continued growth. The EURGBP trade idea for today involves placing a pending Buy Limit order.

The EURGBP news background shows bullish expectations prevailing at 52% versus 48%. The risk-to-reward ratio exceeds 1:3. The potential profit is 48 pips at the first take-profit target and 58 pips at the second, while potential losses are limited to 16 pips.

Trading plan

• Entry point: 0.8521
• Target: 0.8569
• Target 2: 0.8579
• Stop-loss: 0.8505

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GBPCHF trade idea

GBPCHF analysis indicates a slowdown in positive momentum, suggesting a reversal and the beginning of a corrective move. Under these conditions, the preferred scenario remains seeking selling opportunities on the upside. The current correction may offer an attractive risk-to-reward ratio. The key resistance level is located at 1.0920. A rebound from this area may increase selling pressure and trigger a further decline. However, the expected downward move is still viewed as a correction rather than a reversal of the main uptrend. The GBPCHF trade idea for today involves placing a pending Sell Limit order.

The GBPCHF news background indicates balanced market sentiment, 50% versus 50%. The risk-to-reward ratio is 1:5. The potential profit is 68 pips at the first take-profit target and 120 pips at the second, while potential losses are capped at 24 pips.

Trading plan

• Entry point: 1.0920
• Target 1: 1.0852
• Target 2: 1.0800
• Stop-loss: 1.0944

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XAGUSD trade idea

The XAGUSD rate is trading in oversold territory, indicating excessive selling pressure in the short term. The current situation creates the conditions for a corrective rise, while improving short-term sentiment opens up opportunities to seek long positions with an attractive risk-to-reward ratio. Buying on declines after local pullbacks remains the preferred scenario. The expected upward move is viewed as a correction within the broader bearish structure. If confirming signals from buyers emerge, XAGUSD may continue its corrective rise. The XAGUSD trade idea for today suggests placing a pending Buy Limit order.

The XAGUSD news background shows a bearish outlook, 52% versus 48%. The risk-to-reward ratio exceeds 1:3. The potential profit is 4,100 pips at the first take-profit target and 5,050 pips at the second, with potential losses limited to 1,430 pips.

Trading plan

• Entry point: 56.80
• Target: 60.90
• Target 2: 61.85
• Stop-loss: 55.37

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The US 500 index failed to break above the resistance level and corrected by 2%. The US 500 forecast for today is positive.

US 500 forecast: key takeaways

• Recent data: US PPI fell by 0.3% in June 2026
• Market impact: the data is moderately positive for the stock market

US 500 fundamental analysis

A 0.3% monthly decline in the US Producer Price Index, compared to the expected flat reading, is a favourable signal for the US 500 index. The result came in significantly weaker than the 0.6% increase in May and suggests easing price pressures at the US business level. However, the data cannot be viewed as clear evidence of a sustained slowdown in inflation. Year-on-year, producer prices remain elevated, rising by 5.5%, while the index excluding food, energy, and trade services increased by 0.1% month-on-month and by 5.1% year-on-year. Therefore, the report reduces immediate inflation concerns but does not remove them entirely.

For the US 500 index, the initial impact of the news is positive. Weaker producer price growth reduces the probability that the Federal Reserve will need to raise interest rates further in the near term. When rate expectations decline, government bond yields typically decrease, making stocks more attractive than fixed-income instruments.

US 500 technical analysis

The corrective movement in the US 500 index is likely nearing completion, although there are no clear signals of a sustained growth recovery. In the near term, quotes may enter a consolidation phase and continue to trade within a limited price range. The nearest resistance area is located around 7,595.0, while the main support level lies at 7,255.0. If demand strengthens and the uptrend resumes, the next potential target for the index could be 7,720.0.

The US 500 price forecast outlines the following scenarios:

• Pessimistic US 500 forecast: a breakout below the 7,255.0 support level could push the index down to 7,115.0
• Optimistic US 500 forecast: a breakout above the 7,595.0 resistance level could drive the index up to 7,720.0

Summary

Overall, the 0.3% decline in the PPI is moderately positive news for the US 500 and the US stock market. Technology companies, the communication services sector, retail, tourism, and certain industrial companies may receive the strongest support. Energy producers are likely to face negative pressure. At the same time, high annual producer inflation and continued services price growth prevent the market from assuming that inflation risks have fully disappeared. From a technical perspective, the US 500 index could rise to 7,720.0.

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Stay informed with FxPro’s weekly update and stay ahead of what’s shaping the markets. Markets are heading into another important week of economic data, with inflation, central bank policy and business activity all set to influence expectations for interest rates and the outlook for the European economy. 🌍 Wednesday begins with the latest UK Consumer Price Index report. The previous year-on-year inflation reading came in at 2.8% and investors will be watching closely to see whether price pressures continue to build, potentially influencing the Bank of England’s next policy decision. 🇬🇧 Attention then shifts to the Eurozone on Thursday, where the European Central Bank announces its latest interest rate decision. The benchmark rate currently stands at 2.40%, with policymakers balancing persistent inflation against slowing economic growth. Markets will be looking for fresh guidance on the future path of monetary policy. 🇪🇺 Friday wraps up the week with the latest Flash PMI reports from across Europe. Services activity in France and Germany has remained below the key 50 level, while the UK’s previous reading stood at 48.8, signalling continued contraction. The data will offer valuable insight into the health of the region’s economy and business activity. 📊 With inflation, central bank policy and economic growth all in focus, currencies, indices and commodities could see increased volatility throughout the week. 👀 #FxPro #WeeklyNews #MarketUpdate

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh testified before Congress on 14–15 July, reaffirming the Fed's commitment to bringing inflation back to target while providing no clear guidance on the future path of interest rates. Meanwhile, June inflation data came in softer than expected, with annual consumer price

The retail data points to a UK consumer still spending, but decelerating from May's pace even with two clear tailwinds in the heatwave and the World Cup, which suggests the underlying trend is softer than the headline numbers imply. The stabilisation in travel spending after April and May's Iran war related falls is a modest positive, but the explicit warning about food price risk from the conflict flags where the next squeeze on households could come from. On the business side, the CBI and Energy UK's intervention lands at a politically sensitive moment, with a new prime minister about to take office, and puts early pressure on the incoming government over an issue, industrial energy costs, that has been a persistent drag on UK investment.

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Consumers spent on sun and football, but businesses want the new PM to fix their power bills.

Summary:

• BRC total retail sales rose 1.9% year on year in June, slowing from 3.7% in May, while like-for-like sales rose 1.7%, down from 3.4%
• Barclays' broader consumer spending gauge rose 1.9% year on year in June, up from 0.8% in May, with essential spending up 2.2%, its biggest increase in 14 months
• Non-food sales grew 1.2%, double the 12-month average, helped by online shopping, while travel spending stabilised after falls in April and May tied to Iran war concerns
• The Institute of Grocery Distribution said hot weather and the World Cup could support confidence again in July, but flagged political uncertainty and Iran war linked food price risks further ahead
• With Andy Burnham poised to become prime minister, the CBI and Energy UK said 40% of firms are cutting investment due to high energy costs, with electricity prices 45% above the G7 median
• The two groups called for the Renewables Obligation, Feed-in Tariff costs and Climate Change Levy to be removed from business electricity bills, changes they said could cut energy costs by up to 20%, while the TUC separately called for a higher tax on bank profits to fund lower household energy bills

British consumers kept spending in June, helped by a heatwave and the men's World Cup, but the pace of growth cooled from May even with those tailwinds, according to data published Tuesday by the British Retail Consortium and Barclays. The BRC's measure of total retail sales rose 1.9% year on year, in line with its 12 month average but down from 3.7% in May, while like-for-like sales rose 1.7%, down from 3.4%. Barclays' broader gauge of consumer spending told a slightly different story, rising 1.9% year on year, up from 0.8% in May, with essential spending climbing 2.2%, its largest increase in 14 months.

Hot weather boosted sales of clothing, fans and air conditioning units, while pubs reported strong trade on England's World Cup matchdays, and non-food sales grew 1.2%, double the 12 month average, aided by online shopping. Travel spending, which fell sharply in April and May amid concerns tied to the Iran war, has stabilised, and Barclays said consumer confidence in personal finances has also steadied. The Institute of Grocery Distribution's Sarah Bradbury said the combination of warm weather and the World Cup could support confidence again in July, but warned that political uncertainty and the impact of the Iran war on food prices pose risks further out.

That political uncertainty is coming into sharper focus with former Manchester mayor Andy Burnham poised to become prime minister. The CBI and Energy UK used the moment to press the incoming government on business energy costs, saying 40% of firms are cutting investment because of high energy bills, with UK electricity prices running 45% above the G7 median. The two organisations called for the Renewables Obligation and Feed-in Tariff costs to be stripped from business bills, funded instead through general taxation or a dedicated Energy Transition Funding Scheme, and for the Climate Change Levy to be removed from non-domestic electricity bills. Together, they argued, the changes could cut energy costs for firms by as much as 20%. The CBI's chief economist argued stronger economic growth cannot happen while firms face such high energy bills. Separately, the Trades Union Congress called for a higher tax on bank profits to help fund reductions in household energy bills.

New guy is going to have lots of wotk to do. 

• US Treasury revokes June 21 Iran oil sanctions waiver
• One-year inflation expectations hit the highest since 2023 in New York Fed survey
• Trump on Ukraine war: I think we're going to be settling
• Fed's Williams sees steady trend-like growth for the US economy
• US International Trade balance -$77.6B vs -$78.5B estimate
• Canada May trade balance $4.24 billion vs $2.85 billion expected

Markets:

• WTI crude oil up $3.45 to $72.00
• Gold down $49 to $4114
• US 10-year yields up 7 bps to 4.55%
• S&P 500 down 0.4%
• CHF leads, NZD lags

Oil bulls finally caught a break today but it was slow-in-coming. The latest Iranian attack on tankers was mostly met with shrugs early and an 80-cent pop but some bids crept in during the NY afternoon and accelerated after the Treasury withdrew its sanctions waiver for Iran. That's a sign of the deal falling apart as both sides struggle to enforce the MOU or peace. A large convoy of Japanese ships left via the Iran corridor yesterday and that was some of the last stranded oil. We will have to see what comes next but it's hard to say there is any progress.

Treasury yields rose alongside oil and the US dollar made some small progress. Equities initially slipped but then quickly got back to focusing on AI. The chip trade was battered early on with names falling upwards of 10% and largely erasing the June jump.The two-way price action in AI names is a symptom that this phase of the AI trade is wrapping up, or at least pausing.

In terms of economic data, the NY Fed survey was worrisome as it showed rising inflation expectations despite a drop in expected oil inflation. That suggests a broaden of pressures and the survey also highlighted a more-upbeat consumer. The comments from Williams didn't offer anything we haven't heard before.