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The US 500 index rebounded from its previous decline and set a new all-time high following U.S. inflation data. The forecast for US 500 today is positive.

US 500 forecast: key trading points

• Recent data: U.S. S&P Global Composite PMI (preliminary, October) came in at 54.8
• Market impact: the data are generally positive for the U.S. equity market

US 500 fundamental analysis

The U.S. S&P Global Composite PMI rose to 54.8, exceeding both the forecast (53.5) and the previous reading (53.9). This indicates an acceleration in overall economic activity across both manufacturing and services sectors.

For the stock market, such data represent a pro-cyclical signal: stronger growth supports expectations for corporate revenues and operating leverage, reduces the probability of a recession scenario, and typically contributes to narrowing credit spreads. At the same time, the acceleration in PMI carries a potential inflationary risk through stronger employment and wage dynamics.

For the US 500 index, the conclusion is moderately positive, though with possible sector rotation within the index. In a scenario of “strong PMI without a significant rise in bond yields,” the main beneficiaries are likely to be cyclical sectors — industrials, materials, consumer discretionary, and financials — benefiting from improved demand outlook and margin expansion.

US 500 technical analysis

The US 500 index has renewed its all-time high for three consecutive sessions — marking the 34th record high this year. Support has formed at 6,655.0, while resistance at 6,760.0 has been broken, with a new resistance level yet to form. Prices continue to rise confidently, though a short-term correction without a trend reversal remains possible. The next potential upside target is near 6,955.0.

Scenarios for the US 500 price forecast:

• Pessimistic forecast for US 500: if the support level at 6,655.0 is broken, prices may fall to 6,540.0
• Optimistic forecast for US 500: if consolidation above the recently broken resistance at 6,760.0 holds, prices may rise toward 6,955.0

Summary

Overall, the stronger-than-expected PMI release lowers the recession risk premium and supports US 500 valuations through improved profit expectations. However, the index’s near-term trajectory will depend on whether stronger activity translates into higher inflation expectations and yields, which directly affect the cost of capital.

If reports confirming the end of the U.S. government shutdown coincide with favorable data on prices and wages, the index could gain further momentum on improving market sentiment. From a technical standpoint, the US 500 may rise toward 6,955.0.

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After a correction, the JP 225 stock index resumed its upward movement and reached a new all-time high. The JP 225 forecast for today is positive.

JP 225 forecast: key trading points

• Recent data: Japan’s balance of trade for September came in at –234.6 billion JPY
• Market impact: the effect on the Japanese equity market is moderately negative

JP 225 fundamental analysis

Japan’s latest trade balance data for October 2025 showed a deficit of –234.6 billion JPY, compared with expectations for a 22 billion JPY surplus and a slightly smaller deficit in the previous period. This indicates that imports continue to outpace exports and that the trade gap is not narrowing. Such dynamics are typically interpreted as a sign of weakening external demand for Japanese goods and high sensitivity of the economy to imported energy resources. This raises the likelihood of lower industrial production figures and slower performance in export-oriented industries.

The release will likely send the JP 225 index lower. However, the downside potential is expected to be limited, as the negative trade data will be balanced by the Bank of Japan’s commitment to maintain ultra-loose monetary policy. Overall, these results increase the risk premium associated with external trade imbalances.

JP 225 technical analysis

The JP 225 index has reached a new all-time high and is currently undergoing a correction, while the overall trend remains bullish. The support level is located at 47,735.0, while resistance lies at 49,770.0.

The following scenarios are considered for the JP 225 price forecast:

• Pessimistic JP 225 scenario: a breakout below the 47,735.0 support level could send the index down to 46,370.0
• Optimistic JP 225 scenario: a breakout above the 49,770.0 resistance level could drive the index to 51,565.0

Summary

For the stock market, the initial reaction to the trade balance report is typically moderately negative, reflecting weaker macroeconomic expectations and downward revisions to revenue forecasts in cyclical sectors such as automotive, electronics, and industrial equipment. However, the stable monetary policy stance and optimism surrounding Japan’s new political leadership continue to support investor sentiment. The next upside target for the JP 225 could be at 51,565.0.

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Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is delivering a major speech ahead of his first budget to be

• The US has fundamentally changed its approach to trade
• It's not a smooth transition, it's a rupture
• The decades-long process of economic integration with the US is over
• Our relationship with the United States will never be the same
• Now is not the time to be cautious

Carney reportedly met with opposition leader Pierre Poilivre earlier and described Carney's proposals as “very reasonable" but called for lower deficits. Estimates for the deficit range from C$50-$100 billion. Canada's debt is relatively manageable with deficits about half of those in the US vs GDP and total debt to GDP at about 42%.

The budget is slated to be delivered November 4 and he said it will be about:

• Building
• Taking control
• Winning

Carney said they will be making 'generational investments'.

• There is no prosperity without security
• Promises largest defense spending in generations
• Mentions high-speed rail
• Our next tranche of major projects will be announced before Nov 16
• 80% of European steel is manufactured in Europe but only 40% of the steel we use is made here
• Budget will include prioritizing Buy Canadian provisions on steel, aluminum and other industries
• We will be our own best customer
• Federal spending has risen 7% y/y for the past decade

More to come, as we update live.

• Prior was -¥242.B
• Exports +4.2% y/y vs +4.6% expected
• Imports +3.3% y/y vs +0.6% expected

There was a surprise rise in imports that kept Japan in a trade deficit.

• Exports to USA -13.3% y/y
• Exports to Asia +9.2% y/y
• Exports to EU +5% y/y
• Exports to China +5.8% y/y

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EUR/USD dives 0.17% during the North American session on Friday as the Greenback trims its earlier losses as US President Donald Trump tempered his trade rhetoric on China. The pair trades at around 1.1666 after hitting a daily high of 1.1728.

After a nearly 8% decline, the JP 225 stock index has retained potential for further growth, although a sideways movement appears more likely in the short term. The forecast for JP 225 today is negative.

JP 225 forecast: key trading points

• Recent data: Japan’s industrial production decreased by 1.5% month-on-month in August
• Market impact: the effect is negative for the Japanese stock market

JP 225 fundamental analysis

Fresh industrial production data from Japan showed a decline of 1.5% month-on-month, compared with the forecast of -1.2% and the previous reading of -1.2%. This indicates that the manufacturing sector is losing momentum faster than expected. Such a downturn typically reflects weaker capacity utilisation, more cautious purchasing and investment decisions by management, and possible inventory accumulation among firms.

For the JP 225 index, the main influence channel is through corporate earnings expectations. Large Japanese corporations, particularly in capital goods, industrial equipment, electronics, and chemicals, are sensitive to global demand fluctuations and investment cycles. A fall in output raises the likelihood of lower sales volumes and margin pressure. If this weakness persists, corporate managements may revise their annual forecasts downwards, which could weigh on consensus profit expectations and valuations of these companies’ shares.

JP 225 technical analysis

The JP 225 index has fallen by nearly 8%, yet the overall trend remains upward. However, before any resumption of growth, the index will likely trade within a sideways channel. The support level is located around 44,295.0, while resistance lies at 48,695.0.

The following scenarios are considered for the JP 225 price forecast:

• Pessimistic JP 225 scenario: a breakout below the 44,295.0 support level could push the index down to 43,105.0
• Optimistic JP 225 scenario: a breakout above the 48,695.0 resistance level could drive the index to 50,415.0

Summary

In the short term, given the unexpectedly weak data, the JP 225 will likely face increased volatility and moderate downward pressure. The extent of the move will depend on the flow of daily news: if the yen weakens simultaneously, part of the decline could be offset by the strong weighting of exporters in the index. More pronounced and sustained weakness may occur in segments tied to domestic industrial demand and logistics. The next downside target for the JP 225 is at 43,105.0.

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Risk Assets Rise as Fed Chair Hints October Rate Cut; Precious Metals on a Tear - Gold Trades at All-Time High Above $4,187, Silver Above $52.30, Palladium and Platinum Also Gain; Stock Markets Continue Recovery; US Treasury Yields Near Lows 

GBP/USD failed to climb above 1.3500 and corrected some gains. EUR/GBP started a decent increase and might aim for more gains above 0.8710.