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After reaching a new all-time high, the US 30 index trend remains fragile. The outlook for today is positive.

US 30 forecast: key trading points

• Recent data: US JOLTS Job Openings for September came in at 7.23M
• Market impact: confirms economic resilience and revenue support for cyclical companies

US 30 fundamental analysis

The JOLTS report showed 7.23M job openings versus a forecast of 7.19M and 7.21M in the previous month. This points to sustained labour demand and underlines the resilience of the job market. Although the increase was modest, it reduces the likelihood of a swift easing of labour market tightness and could maintain upward pressure on wages and core services inflation.

The small upside surprise strengthens the case for the Federal Reserve to take a cautious approach to policy easing. Expectations for aggressive rate cuts in the near term have diminished, while long-term bond yields may stay elevated. This increases the sensitivity of equity markets to rate dynamics and inflation expectations.

US 30 technical analysis

The US 30 index continues to trade in an uptrend, marking fresh record highs. Resistance is set at 46,500.0, while support lies at 45,685.0. Elevated volatility highlights the fragility of the current trend, and near-term upside potential remains capped.

The US 30 price forecast considers the following scenarios:

• Pessimistic case: if support at 45,685.0 breaks, the index could decline to 44,925.0
• Optimistic case: if resistance at 46,500.0 is breached, the index may rise to 47,250.0

Summary

For an index heavily weighted toward industrials, financials, and consumer companies, the reaction will likely be neutral to moderately positive, supported by signs of resilient activity and demand. However, higher bond yields could limit gains and amplify intraday volatility. In the near term, the index may show relative stability compared to more rate-sensitive benchmarks, with performance shaped by Treasury yield movements and Fed commentary. The next upside target is 46,595.0.

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The US Tech index is correcting after reaching a new all-time high. The US Tech forecast for next week remains positive.

US Tech forecast: key trading points

• Recent data: US initial jobless claims for last week totalled 218 thousand
• Market impact: for the technology sector, this result is mostly positive

US Tech fundamental analysis

The latest US initial jobless claims fell to 218 thousand, coming in above expectations of 233 thousand and well below the previous reading of 232 thousand. This dynamic signals resilience in the labour market, indicating that the economy continues to create jobs despite slowing global activity. For investors, it serves as a sign that the fundamentals of corporate earnings remain strong, as household demand is supported by stable employment.

At the same time, a strong labour market may curb expectations of a rapid easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, as wage-driven inflationary pressure could persist. For the technology sector, represented in the US Tech index, the effect is mixed. On the one hand, a stable labour market supports consumer demand for digital services, devices, and IT solutions, which is positive for companies in the sector.

US Tech technical analysis

On the other hand, stronger employment data reduces the likelihood of an imminent rate cut, and low rates play a key role in sustaining high valuations of growth stocks. While this may limit short-term price gains, it is unlikely to significantly affect long-term trends.

The US Tech index broke above the previous resistance level at 24,425.0, with a new support line at 24,020.0 and a new resistance level at 24,805.0. The uptrend will likely be medium-term, with the nearest upside target at 25,380.0.

The following scenarios are considered for the US Tech price forecast:

• Pessimistic US Tech scenario: a breakout below the 24,020.0 support level could send the index to 22,985.0
• Optimistic US Tech scenario: a breakout above the 24,805.0 resistance level could drive the index up to 25,380.0

Summary

The overall reaction for the US Tech index will likely be moderately subdued: positive signals of economic resilience will be offset by persistent expectations of a cautious Federal Reserve stance on easing policy. Thus, the data creates a neutral-to-positive background where long-term prospects remain favourable, while short-term dynamics are limited. The next upside target may be the 25,380.0 level.

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After hitting a new all-time high, the US 30 trend remains fragile. The US 30 forecast for today is positive.

US 30 forecast: key trading points

• Recent data: US manufacturing PMI (preliminary) came in at 52.0 in September
• Market impact: the decline in the PMI relative to the forecast and the previous reading indicates a slowdown in industrial momentum

US 30 fundamental analysis

The US manufacturing PMI for September 2025 stood at 52.0, below the forecast of 52.2 and the previous figure of 53.0. A PMI reading above 50.0 indicates continued expansion in manufacturing activity, signalling ongoing growth in the industrial sector. However, the decline compared to expectations and the previous month suggests a slower pace of growth, raising concerns about the resilience of the recovery.

For the US 30, the implications are mixed. A PMI reading above 50.0 confirms continued economic growth and supports confidence in corporate earnings in industrials, which is positive for investors. At the same time, the weaker-than-expected print limits upside potential, signalling that momentum in the industrial economy is slowing. Overall, the release creates a neutral backdrop: expansion continues, but investor caution is rising.

US 30 technical analysis

The US 30 index continues to trade in the uptrend, reaching a new all-time high. The resistance level is located at 46,500.0, with support at 45,685.0. However, persistent high volatility indicates instability in the current trend, with the upside potential remaining limited in the near term.

The US 30 price forecast considers the following scenarios:

• Pessimistic US 30 scenario: a breakout below the 45,685.0 support level could send the index down to 44,925.0
• Optimistic US 30 scenario: a breakout above the 46,50 resistance level could drive the index up to 47,250

Summary

The impact on the US 30 is likely to remain restrained and mixed: the economy continues to expand, supporting the index, but the slowdown in business activity compared to recent months limits growth potential. From a technical perspective, further upside looks constrained. The nearest upside target may be 46,595.0, but after reaching this level, a correction could develop into a full-fledged downtrend.

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EUR/USD edges lower on Friday, late in the North American session, as the Greenback recovers after bouncing off three-year lows reached in the aftermath of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate cut.

The US Federal Reserve lowered the funds rate by a quarter point to 4.0%-4.25% at Wednesday’s policy meeting. The funds rate is now at its lowest level since November 2022.