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After hitting a new all-time high, the US 30 trend remains fragile. The US 30 forecast for today is positive.

US 30 forecast: key trading points

• Recent data: US manufacturing PMI (preliminary) came in at 52.0 in September
• Market impact: the decline in the PMI relative to the forecast and the previous reading indicates a slowdown in industrial momentum

US 30 fundamental analysis

The US manufacturing PMI for September 2025 stood at 52.0, below the forecast of 52.2 and the previous figure of 53.0. A PMI reading above 50.0 indicates continued expansion in manufacturing activity, signalling ongoing growth in the industrial sector. However, the decline compared to expectations and the previous month suggests a slower pace of growth, raising concerns about the resilience of the recovery.

For the US 30, the implications are mixed. A PMI reading above 50.0 confirms continued economic growth and supports confidence in corporate earnings in industrials, which is positive for investors. At the same time, the weaker-than-expected print limits upside potential, signalling that momentum in the industrial economy is slowing. Overall, the release creates a neutral backdrop: expansion continues, but investor caution is rising.

US 30 technical analysis

The US 30 index continues to trade in the uptrend, reaching a new all-time high. The resistance level is located at 46,500.0, with support at 45,685.0. However, persistent high volatility indicates instability in the current trend, with the upside potential remaining limited in the near term.

The US 30 price forecast considers the following scenarios:

• Pessimistic US 30 scenario: a breakout below the 45,685.0 support level could send the index down to 44,925.0
• Optimistic US 30 scenario: a breakout above the 46,50 resistance level could drive the index up to 47,250

Summary

The impact on the US 30 is likely to remain restrained and mixed: the economy continues to expand, supporting the index, but the slowdown in business activity compared to recent months limits growth potential. From a technical perspective, further upside looks constrained. The nearest upside target may be 46,595.0, but after reaching this level, a correction could develop into a full-fledged downtrend.

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Ahead of the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) eagerly-awaited Minutes, due to be published on Wednesday at 23:50 GMT, the Japanese Yen (JPY) is holding steady against the US Dollar (USD), with USD/JPY hovering around 147.70, showing no intraday trend.

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EUR/USD edges lower on Friday, late in the North American session, as the Greenback recovers after bouncing off three-year lows reached in the aftermath of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate cut.

The US Federal Reserve lowered the funds rate by a quarter point to 4.0%-4.25% at Wednesday’s policy meeting. The funds rate is now at its lowest level since November 2022.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3721; (P) 1.3752; (R1) 1.3770; More… Outlook in USD/CAD is unchanged and intraday bias stays neutral. On the downside, firm break of 1.3725 support will complete a head and shoulder top (ls: 1.3878, h: 1.3923, rs: 1.3889). That would indicate that corrective rebound from 1.3538 has already completed, and turn near term […]

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The Daily Breakdown takes a closer look at Lululemon, which has falling sales but a historically low valuation. What’s next for LULU? Before we dive in, let’s make sure you’re set to receive The Daily Breakdown each morning. To keep getting our daily insights, all you need to do is log in to your eToro…

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After completing a correction, the US Tech index resumed its upward movement and set a new all-time high. The US Tech forecast for next week is positive.

US Tech forecast: key trading points

• Recent data: US PPI for August declined by 0.1%
• Market impact: this is broadly positive for the US stock market, as it increases the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut

US Tech fundamental analysis

The US Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 0.1% m/m, below expectations of a 0.3% rise and after a 0.7% increase in the previous month. This indicates easing input cost pressure for real sector companies. Historically, PPI trends partially pass through to consumer inflation (CPI/PCE) with a lag, so the current result increases the likelihood of a smoother price trajectory in H2 and reduces the risk of secondary cost-driven inflationary effects.

For financial markets, the main channel of influence lies in Fed policy expectations and bond yields. A weaker PPI reinforces dovish sentiment: the probability of a pause and/or earlier rate cuts rises, the term premium on Treasuries declines, and discount rates for future cash flows fall. This environment favours long-duration growth assets, particularly technology stocks. The US Tech index is statistically sensitive to lower yields, as a large share of its market capitalisation comes from companies with long growth horizons.

US Tech technical analysis

In the short term, the base case is moderate upside in the US Tech, driven by lower yields and improved risk-to-reward ratio for long-term growth stories. The strongest performance is typically shown by large platforms and high-quality software assets, alongside more volatile, unprofitable growth names. The sustainability of the rally, however, depends on confirmation of the inflation trend in consumer prices.

The US Tech index broke above the previous resistance level at 23,875.0, with a new support line formed at 23,445.0. A new resistance level is yet to form. The uptrend will likely be medium-term, with the nearest upside target at 24,460.0.

The following scenarios are considered for the US Tech price forecast:

• Pessimistic US Tech scenario: a breakout below the 23,445.0 support level could send the index to 22,390.0
• Optimistic US Tech scenario: if the price consolidates above the previously breached resistance level at 23,875.0, the index could advance to 24,460.0

Summary

The PPI report eases inflation concerns and strengthens expectations of a more dovish Fed policy, creating a supportive backdrop for the US Tech index. Growth stocks benefit the most, while cyclical subsectors tied to end demand show a more restrained reaction. The nearest upside target is 24,460.0.

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After reaching a new all-time high, the trend in the US 30 index remains unstable. The US 30 forecast for today is positive.

US 30 forecast: key trading points

• Recent data: the US PMI for August came in at 55.5
• Market impact: for US equities, this result signals a cautious investor sentiment

US 30 fundamental analysis

The US unemployment rate stood at 4.3% in line with market forecasts but above 4.2% in July. From a macroeconomic perspective, this indicates a gradual cooling of the labour market: a moderate rise in unemployment eases wage pressure and reduces service-sector inflation. In terms of financial conditions, this is generally favourable, as expectations of a softer monetary policy path increase, Treasury yields tend to decline, and funding costs for companies decrease. At the same time, the fact that unemployment is rising points to a slower pace of economic growth.

For the US 30, the signal is mixed. If markets interpret the figure as evidence of a soft landing, we may see a short-term improvement in risk appetite driven by lower yields and stronger expectations of Fed easing. However, if focus shifts to risks for growth momentum, the index could show a more restrained performance given its heavy weighting in cyclical sectors.

US 30 technical analysis

The US 30 index once again shows signs of upward movement. The resistance level is seen at 45,790.0, while the support level is located around 44,590.0. However, persistently high volatility underlines the fragility of the current trend. Growth potential remains limited in the near term, and weak momentum increases the risk of a reversal towards the downside.

The US 30 price forecast considers the following scenarios:

• Pessimistic US 30 scenario: a breakout below the 44,590.0 support level could push the index down to 43,325.0
• Optimistic US 30 scenario: a breakout above the 45,790.0 resistance level could boost the index up to 46,595.0

Summary

From a Federal Reserve policy perspective, the unemployment figure meeting expectations while edging higher strengthens the case for a softer stance if labour market and inflation data continues to weaken. For equities, this means the short-term trajectory will depend on the balance of two forces: support from lower rates and the discount applied for slowing growth risks. The base case is a moderately neutral-to-positive reaction in the US 30 as yields decline, but with heightened sensitivity to upcoming labour and inflation releases. The next upside target stands at 46,595.0.

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