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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1646; (P) 1.1673; (R1) 1.1724; More…. Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside at this point. The break of 1.1747 resistance should confirm that fall form 1.1917 has completed as a correction to 1.1467. Further rally should be seen to retest 1.1917 high. For now, risk will stay on the upside […]

The post EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on ActionForex.

Introduction to AUDUSD The AUDUSD currency pair-commonly known as the “Aussie-tracks the exchange rate between the Australian Dollar and the US Dollar. It is one of the most actively traded pairs in the forex market, driven by interest rate differentials, commodity prices, and overall risk sentiment. The Aussie is seen as a proxy for global […]

The post AUDUSD Technical Breakout: Bullish Trend Builds appeared first on UnitedPips Ltd.

  High Expectations How Markets Really React to News High Expectations Navigating financial markets around major news events can feel unpredictable even for experienced traders....

The post How Markets Really React to News: Understanding Expectations, Sentiment, and Price Action appeared first on Forex Trading Forum.

The ADX indicator on the 4-hour XAU/USD chart has dropped to a multi-month low, signalling the absence of a clear trend.

• US stocks close marginally higher
• Trump says Witkoff meeting with Putin 'reasonably good'. Trump adds no substantive details
• Tomorrow in the US the Challenger job cuts and US unemployment claims
• Crude oil futures settle at $58.95
• Gasparino: Wall Street does not like Hassett.
• Rep Stefanik: Calls House Speaker an ineffective leader who is losing control over the GOP
• European stock indices close mixed. German DAX and UK's FTSE 100 close lower
• Treasury's Lavorgna: Expecting more growth in 2026 driven by measures from Trump tax act
• EIA crude oil inventories build of 0.574M versus a drawdown of -0.821 million estimate
• Microsoft: We did not lower our AI sales quotas
• Commerce Sec. Howard Lutnick: Prices don't move unless tariffs are above 50%
• US ISM nonmanufacturing PMI 52.6 versus 52.1 estimate
• US S&P global services PMI for November 54.1 versus 55.0 preliminary
• Canada S&P services PMI 44.3 versus 50.5 last month
• Treasury Secretary Bessent: Trump has normalized the idea of a 15-20% tariff
• US September industrial production 0.1% versus 0.0% expected
• Microsoft lowers AI sales quotas.
• USDINR Technicals: The upside run in USDINR continues. Stretches toward the Fib extension
• ECB'sLagarde: Growth in economic activity should benefit from increased household spending
• US import prices 0.0% versus 0.1% expected. Export prices 0.0% versus 0.1% expected
• ADP National employment for November -32K vs 10K est.
• Stocks are higher, yields are lower and the USD is lower. How about the technicals?
• investingLive European FX news wrap: Swiss CPI misses again, USD falls as yields retreat

The USD is closing lower vs all the major currencies with the GBPUSD the biggest mover. The USD is still lower vs the CAD but only by -0.12%.

A snapshot of the changes vs the major currencies shows:

• EUR: -0.38%
• JPY -0.40%
• GBP -1.04%
• CHF -0.37%
• CAD -0.12%
• AUD -0.59%
• NZD -0.66%

The move lower was helped by weaker than expected ADP employment numbers. ADP reported a weaker-than-expected labor print for November, showing a 32,000 decline in private payrolls versus expectations for a modest gain. The prior month was revised up to 47,000, but November saw broad weakness across both goods-producing (-19K) and services (-13K) sectors. Small businesses remained under significant strain with a 120,000 job loss, marking negative readings in six of the past seven months, while medium and large firms added 51K and 39K, respectively. Industry detail showed strength in education (+30K) and leisure/hospitality (+13K), contrasted by notable declines in manufacturing (-18K), information (-20K), and professional/business services (-26K). Wage growth indicators continued to cool, with job changers seeing pay rise 4.4% (down from 4.5%) and job stayers rising 6.3% (down from 6.7%). Overall, the report pointed to a softening labor market, particularly among small firms and cyclical sectors.

In other data releases:

• The U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI edged up to 52.6 in November from 52.4, slightly above expectations and signaling continued, modest expansion in the services sector. Business activity improved to 54.5, and employment strengthened to 48.9, its best reading since May—though still below the 50 contraction line. New orders softened notably to 52.9, the weakest since September, while prices paid eased sharply to 65.4 from 70.0, suggesting some cooling in input inflation pressures. Other components showed broad stabilization, with backlogs, export orders, and imports all improving from the prior month. Respondent commentary pointed to persistent tariff-related uncertainty, mixed economic conditions, margin pressures, affordability challenges, and uneven demand across industries, though pockets of optimism remain as supply chains stabilize and some sectors finish the year with solid activity.
• U.S. industrial production in September rose 0.1%, matching a modest improvement but coming in just above expectations, while prior-month figures were revised notably lower, painting a softer underlying picture. Manufacturing output was flat on the month after an upward revision the prior month, underscoring uneven momentum across factory activity. Capacity utilization held at 75.9%, well below the 77.3% expected, reflecting continued slack in industrial capacity despite stable headline output. Looking through the monthly noise, industrial production increased at a 1.1% annual rate in the third quarter, though the downward revisions to August suggest the sector entered the fall period with less strength than previously reported. Overall, the report showed a mixed performance: modest growth in September offset by weaker historical data and continued underuse of manufacturing capacity.

The major stock indices close marginally higher led by the Dow industrial average with a gain of 0.80%. The broader S&P index was up by 0.30% while the NASDAQ index was up a marginal 0.17%.

In the US debt market, yields are lower in reaction to the weaker ADP report

• 2-year yield 3.485%, -3.0 basis points
• 5 year yield 3.629%, -3.0 basis points
• 10 year yield 4.063%, -2.5 basis points
• 30 year yield 4.728%, -1.2 basis points

Crude oil is higher by about $0.50 at $59.11. Gold is up $3.60 at $4209.37. The point rose an additional $2200.to $93,510. On Monday, the low price reached $83,814.

Democratic state Rep. Aftyn Behn and Republican Matt Van Epps are facing off today in Tennessee's 7th House district in a race that could get the market's attention.

Trump won the district against Harris by a margin of 60-38% and also won 56-41% in the 2020 election (which Trump lost). Republican Mark Green said he quit in June to take a job in the private sector after winning 60-38%. In fact, he founded the company, which is a trade/business development firm that appears to be involved in Guyana, which is an oil-drilling hotspot.

The district is a generally ultra-safe Republican district but polls show that it's closer in a possible sign of things to come in the midterms.

At PredictIt, the market shows a 3-12% win for Van Epps. If it comes in at 5% or lower, that's going to make many Republican Congressmen nervous, and potentially lead to some pushback against Trump, and possibly tariffs. Politicans want nothing more than power and they need to win elections to maintain it. Trump's approval numbers are poor and Republican Congress has been a rubber stamp. A poor election today could make many Republicans fear a November 2026 wipeout.

American Black Friday sales numbers were released from the usual suspects earlier on Monday.

• Mastercard SpendingPulse estimated that Black Friday retail sales ex-autos were +4.1% y/y, accelerating from the prior year's +3.4% y/y growth.
• Adobe sees sales through Cyber Monday up 6.3% on a year-over-year basis
• Salesforce said Canadian online sales for the weekend were up 9% y/y, highlighting continued Canadian consumer spending strength this year (something that bucks worries about tariffs/Trump)
• For the USA, average selling prices were up 7% y/y, while order volumes were down 1% y/y.

Overall, the consumer looks fairly healthy and it won't hurt to get another rate cut this month. Pricing is at 85% for a cut on Dec 10.

Analyst Weekly, December 1, 2025 Consumer Stocks: The Sleeper Trade Heading Into 2026 Consumers have looked gloomy on the surface: confidence readings are hovering near cycle lows, layoffs keep making headlines, and affordability stress is real. But under the hood, the US consumer is gearing up for one of the biggest stimulus tailwinds since the…

The post Cooldown to Cashflow appeared first on eToro.

Nasdaq-100 index: ⬆️ Buy – Nasdaq-100 broke resistance zone – Likely to rise to resistance level 0.3000 Nasdaq-100 index recently broke the resistance zone between the round resistance level 25000.00  and the resistance trendline of the daily down channel from.

The United States is celebrating Thanksgiving, meaning trading activity across financial markets will be lower than usual today (and to some extent tomorrow).