After AI, markets are already betting on the quantum revolution
Key points:
- Quantum computing is entering a new phase of acceleration, with a sharp increase in both private and public investment since 2025.
- Despite this influx of capital, the sector remains largely pre-commercial. Company revenues are still limited, and a significant share of market value is now driven by expectations of future growth rather than current performance.
- The technological landscape is still highly open. Several competing approaches coexist, with no dominant standard having yet emerged, keeping uncertainty high regarding tomorrow’s winners.
- Quantum technology has become a strategic priority for governments, on par with semiconductors and artificial intelligence. It is directly linked to issues of cybersecurity, defense, and technological sovereignty.
Understanding the essentials
A classical computer, like the one on your desk, your phone, or Amazon’s servers, processes bits. Each bit is either 0 or 1: on or off, black or white. All modern computing is built on this binary logic. A quantum computer, on the other hand, uses qubits. A qubit can be both 0 and 1 at the same time: this is what is known as superposition. To this is added entanglement: two qubits can become linked in such a way that any action on one instantly affects the other, regardless of the distance between them. Imagine a gigantic maze with millions of paths. A classical computer tests them one by one. A quantum computer explores them all in parallel. This is not just “faster”, it is a fundamental shift in the nature of computation! In practical terms, quantum computing could make it possible to solve extremely complex problems much faster than today’s computers. Where the most powerful supercomputers would need thousands or even millions of years, a sufficiently powerful quantum computer could find a solution in just a few hours. The potential applications are vast: discovering new drugs, improving batteries, optimizing transport networks, strengthening cybersecurity, or better analyzing financial risk.
Today, three major fields are developing in parallel: - Quantum computing, which aims to build these ultra-powerful new computers - Quantum communications, which could make data exchange virtually impossible to hack - Quantum sensors, capable of measuring with unprecedented precision, with applications in healthcare, navigation, and industry.The major capital influx: private money enters the game
The year 2025 marks a clear acceleration in quantum funding. Global investment in quantum startups rose from $2 billion in 2024 to $12.6 billion in 2025, more than a sixfold increase in one year. The vast majority of this capital (nearly 90%) is currently directed toward the development of quantum computers and related computing technologies.Beyond the sheer amounts involved, what is changing most is the structure of funding. The sector, long supported by public research institutions and laboratories, is now heavily dependent on private investors. In 2025, nearly 97% of funding for quantum startups came from private sources, compared with 67% a year earlier. At the same time, financial markets are playing an increasingly important role in funding the sector. A significant share of capital now flows through IPOs, mergers and acquisitions, and public market fundraising. Quantum is thus gradually moving beyond the venture capital ecosystem alone and entering the realm of traditional financial markets. This dynamic is accompanied by a strong concentration of investment. The ten largest deals in 2025 alone accounted for around 60% of global funding. The sector is therefore beginning to structure itself around a handful of players identified as leaders, while the rest of the ecosystem remains highly fragmented.
This rise of private-sector dominance is also being supported by governments. In the United States, more than $2 billion in public funding has been announced under the CHIPS and Science Act, particularly in support of players such as IBM and IonQ. As a result, the combination of private capital, financial markets, and public support has significantly accelerated interest in the sector. Shares in the S&P Kensho Quantum Computing index have risen by 60% since January 2026, far outperforming the Nasdaq-100 (+21%).
Quantum becomes a global strategic priority
Quantum technology is no longer just a technological or financial opportunity. For governments, it has become a matter of national security and sovereignty. While financial markets are primarily focused on growth potential, governments see it as a long-term issue of power and influence. Three key dimensions explain its importance:1) Communication security (the “Q-Day” scenario) Today, most digital systems rely on encryption mechanisms to protect data: banks, messaging services, public administrations, and defense systems. A sufficiently advanced quantum computer could eventually weaken some of these protections. This is sometimes referred to as “Q-Day”, a moment when certain cryptographic systems would no longer be secure enough. Governments are already preparing for this scenario by developing new security standards designed to withstand the quantum era. 2) A military and technological advantage Quantum technology is not limited to computing; it also extends to measurement and sensing. It could enable more precise navigation systems independent of GPS, useful in military or underwater environments. It also opens the door to sensors capable of detecting extremely weak signals or variations that are currently invisible. 3) Control of the key technologies of the future Quantum computing could also transform entire sectors of the economy: chemistry, energy, materials, and healthcare. For example, it could make it possible to simulate molecules far more accurately, accelerate the discovery of new materials, or optimize highly complex industrial processes. The entity that masters these tools could therefore gain a significant lead in strategic industries. This importance explains why all major powers are investing heavily. According to McKinsey & Company, more than $55 billion in public investments have already been announced worldwide to support the development of quantum technologies.
Europe holds a strong position in research, but it is still trying to turn this scientific lead into industrial leadership.
France has notably strengthened its national quantum strategy with new investments aimed at supporting key players and developing a sovereign quantum computer. The objective is clear: to avoid technological dependence on the United States and China.Where quantum truly creates value
There are several sectors where quantum computing could have a major economic impact in the coming years. Today, these use cases remain largely experimental, and industry revenues are still relatively modest. But projections toward 2035 give an idea of the economic potential this technology could represent if it reaches industrial maturity. Four areas stand out in particular :Pharmaceuticals Quantum computing could transform drug discovery by enabling more precise simulation of molecular behavior. The goal is to reduce both the time and cost of developing new treatments, which are currently often very long and expensive processes. Companies such as AstraZeneca are already collaborating with IonQ and NVIDIA on hybrid approaches combining classical and quantum computing. Finance In finance, quantum computing is being explored to optimize portfolios, improve risk management, and accelerate certain complex market-related calculations. HSBC and IBM have already tested early applications in algorithmic trading, while JPMorgan is working with Quantinuum on use cases related to cryptography and secure random number generation. Chemistry & materials Quantum computing could help design new materials, optimize batteries, and improve industrial processes, particularly in the context of the energy transition. Companies such as BASF are already exploring these applications with quantum players like D-Wave. Logistics & transport Quantum computing could enable the optimization of extremely complex logistics problems: routing, supply chains, and real-time flow management. IonQ, for example, is working with companies such as Einride on use cases related to advanced logistics and autonomous transport systems.
How to invest in quantum
The financial instruments mentioned in this article are provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment recommendations.Indirect exposure through Big Tech IBM, Google, Microsoft, and Amazon are all heavily involved in quantum computing while also benefiting from highly diversified business models.
This setup provides exposure to quantum advancements while remaining backed by established companies with multiple revenue streams. Quantum-themed ETFs The Defiance Quantum ETF is the best known. It has gained +78% over the past 12 months and +40% since January 2026. Other ETFs are also available from iShares and VanEck. These funds provide automatic diversification across companies in the sector. Listed pure players Specialized companies such as IonQ, D-Wave, and Rigetti offer direct exposure to this technology, but with a very high level of risk and significant volatility. This type of investment can experience extreme moves, with sharp rallies following technological breakthroughs, but also severe corrections in the event of delays or disappointments.
Key risks to understand
Investing in quantum computing today means betting on a future technology while accepting the uncertainty that comes with it. 1) The timeline remains uncertain Quantum computing is promising, but no one knows exactly when the machines will become reliable enough for large-scale commercial applications. Timelines have been repeatedly pushed back over the past 20 years. Investors need to be comfortable with uncertainty. 2) Valuations disconnected from current revenues Companies such as IonQ, Rigetti, and D-Wave already command multi-billion-dollar valuations, even though their revenues are still measured in tens of millions. Traditional valuation methods do not fully apply here: investors are not only looking at current results, but above all at what these companies could become in the future. As a result, stock market swings are extremely pronounced, with gains or losses of 20% to 30% sometimes triggered by a single announcement. 3) No technology has yet emerged as the dominant standard Several approaches currently coexist: superconductors (IBM, Google), trapped ions (IonQ, Quantinuum), photonics (PsiQuantum, Xanadu), neutral atoms, and spin qubits (Intel). The risk for investors is therefore backing the wrong technology, much like during the Betamax versus VHS format war in the 1970s. 4) Industry concentration In such a capital-intensive sector, the risk is that a handful of giants (IBM, Google, Microsoft) capture most of the value, leaving limited room for smaller players. 5) Regulatory and geopolitical risk Quantum technology has become strategically important for governments. Restrictions on exports of critical components, cross-border investment bans between rival countries (particularly the US and China), or partial nationalizations could disrupt companies exposed to both markets.Conclusion
Quantum computing is still at an early stage, but it is already being treated as a strategic technology by both markets and governments. Private investment is accelerating rapidly, public funding is following the same trend, and major global powers are positioning themselves to avoid falling behind. What is striking is not only the technological potential, but also the speed at which the sector is attracting capital even though its commercial applications remain limited. This creates a gap between the maturity of the technology and market enthusiasm. In this context, quantum computing looks less like a traditional sector and more like a long-term technological race — still highly uncertain, yet already structurally important. The coming years will be decisive in identifying which technologies will prevail, which players will survive, and how value will ultimately be captured.This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.
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