Asia Realigned

Analyst Weekly,  November 3, 2025

Trade Diplomacy: US’s “Asia Blitz” Targets China

While D.C. argued over spending, the US administration was busy redrawing Asia’s trade map. Deals were done with Malaysia, Cambodia, Vietnam, and Thailand, all carrying provisions designed to curb China’s influence, from banning goods made with forced labor to tightening export controls on sensitive technologies.

At the same time, Washington and Beijing reached a one-year “managed decoupling” truce: China paused new rare-earth export bans, the US delayed new sanctions on Chinese firms, and both sides agreed to more agricultural and energy trade. The goal, at least for now, is to slow the economic separation without derailing global supply chains.

Investor Takeaway: Expect renewed momentum in “China-plus-one” trade beneficiaries like Vietnam, Thailand, and India. ETFs tracking emerging Asian manufacturing could gain from redirected supply chains. US semiconductor and energy exporters also stand to benefit as trade flows rebalance.

Allies in the Fold: Japan, South Korea, and the AI Angle

The US also deepened its alliances with Japan and South Korea, striking investment pacts across nuclear energy, shipbuilding, and artificial intelligence (AI). Japan committed to help finance $80 billion worth of US nuclear projects, while South Korea’s $350 billion investment plan, a long-debated package, will now prioritize heavy manufacturing and maritime industries.

Meanwhile, tech cooperation took center stage: Washington and Tokyo agreed to coordinate AI and quantum computing development, ensuring that allies rely on US-made AI chips. Taiwan also reported “progress” in its own trade talks, reinforcing America’s technology sphere of influence.

Investor Takeaway: This “friendshoring” momentum is bullish for AI infrastructure and chipmakers tied to US supply chains. Names in semiconductors, clean energy, and industrial robotics could see sustained demand. Long-term investors might look at global thematic funds focused on AI or next-gen manufacturing.

Key Earnings Reports: Week of November 3, 2025

  • Palantir Technologies (PLTR): Investors will be laser-focused on the uptake of Palantir’s new Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) and its role in accelerating the company’s growth. The expanding commercial use-cases for Palantir’s AI-driven analytics have analysts predicting a ~50% YoY revenue jump, underscoring the view that Palantir is at the forefront of the AI revolution.
  • Pfizer (PFE): Investors will be watching for guidance and new product momentum, looking for signs that Pfizer’s non-COVID portfolio (which grew 14% in the prior year’s quarter) can offset the steep decline in COVID franchise sales and restore earnings growth.
  • Advanced Micro Devices (AMD): Wall Street is focused on momentum in AMD’s expanding AI and cloud segments, expecting ~27% YoY sales growth fueled by demand for EPYC server processors and new AI accelerators; a trend investors hope can keep AMD’s 2025 rally intact in the face of PC market headwinds.
  • Uber Technologies (UBER): The spotlight is on execution and margin discipline as Uber strives for sustainable profitability across rides and delivery. Investors are watching for steady ride-hailing profit margins and improving unit economics in food delivery; solid bookings growth coupled with cost control could extend Uber’s 2025 stock surge, while any slip in efficiency or demand would raise doubts about its post-pandemic profit trajectory.
  • BP (BP): The focus will be on cash flow and strategic portfolio moves amid an uncertain oil price outlook. Investors are keen for updates on BP’s plan to sell its Castrol lubricants unit, a divestment aimed at boosting shareholder value, and will scrutinize how higher refining margins (expected to lift quarterly profits) are balancing out softer upstream earnings.
  • Qualcomm (QCOM): Qualcomm’s report will test whether emerging growth areas can overcome weakness in its core smartphone chip business. Investors will gauge if demand for Qualcomm’s AI-enabled chips and expansion into PCs, autos, and IoT can offset continued softness in global handset sales, the smartphone market remains Qualcomm’s stronghold but has been sluggish, so any commentary on handset demand or diversification (e.g. wins in premium phones or PC processors) will likely drive the stock’s reaction.
  • Shopify (SHOP): The e-commerce platform’s valuation rests on balancing rapid growth with improving profitability. The key metric will be Shopify’s gross merchandise volume (GMV) and revenue growth (guided in the high-20% range) relative to its expense discipline, investors want to see continued 20%+ GMV expansion alongside evidence that recent cost cuts are boosting margins and free cash flow, which would validate Shopify’s post-rally valuation.
  • McDonald’s (MCD): The fast-food giant’s same-store sales mix is the critical focus this quarter. Investors are watching how successful McDonald’s new value meal promotions have been in driving customer traffic versus their impact on average check size; early analyst insights suggest the September launch of Extra Value Meals likely lifted foot traffic but dented average ticket, so the company’s comparable sales (expected ~+2.5% YoY) and management’s commentary on pricing will set the post-earnings tone.
  • Novo Nordisk (NVO): The Danish pharma heavyweight’s results will hinge on its blockbuster obesity and diabetes drugs. Ozempic and Wegovy now account for roughly 65% of Novo Nordisk’s sales, so investors will be laser-focused on the quarterly revenue from these GLP-1 medicines. Any update on demand vs. supply constraints for Wegovy, and Novo’s ability to sustain high growth in the face of new competitors, will be pivotal in driving the stock’s reaction.
  • Moderna (MRNA): Moderna’s narrative is shifting from COVID windfall to pipeline promise. With COVID-19 vaccine revenue sharply down, the key for investors is any sign of stabilization in booster demand and progress in Moderna’s non-COVID pipeline. In particular, updates on the uptake of its new fall COVID booster and the status of upcoming vaccines (like RSV or flu) are crucial – the market wants reassurance that Moderna’s next generation of products can fill the gap as COVID sales fade.
  • AstraZeneca (AZN): As a UK-based pharma giant reporting this week, AstraZeneca’s core oncology and rare disease drug sales will be the focal point. Investors are particularly tuned to growth trends for key cancer therapies and the company’s outlook amid upcoming drug patent expirations. Any updates on its pipeline (especially in areas like oncology and the burgeoning diabetes/obesity market) and how it navigates drug pricing pressures in the US and Europe will likely drive AstraZeneca’s shares following earnings.
  • Airbnb (ABNB): The home-sharing platform’s quarter will turn on the strength of travel demand and booking trends. The metric to watch is nights booked and average daily rates, as Airbnb has been posting around 8 to 10% revenue growth. Investors will be listening to management’s commentary on booking momentum into the holidays and any signals of consumer travel appetite or margin pressure – this will determine if Airbnb can maintain its post-pandemic growth trajectory and high profitability into 2026.
  • Amgen (AMGN): As a newly inducted Dow component, Amgen’s story is about new drugs replacing old ones. The focus is on whether Amgen’s lineup of newer therapies and its Horizon Pharma acquisition are generating enough growth to offset patent fades and biosimilar competition on aging blockbusters. Investors will parse Amgen’s earnings and guidance for evidence that its innovative drugs (and cost cuts) are driving revenue gains, a key factor behind Amgen’s market-beating performance this year, as this will determine if the stock’s outperformance can continue.

Market Pulse: Vol, Skew, and a GLD Hangover

Despite political noise, the S&P 500 traded sideways through the heaviest stretch of earnings. Volatility cooled as earnings rolled on, with the VIX slipping below mid-October highs. Big Tech earnings were mixed: Meta and Microsoft slipped, while Google held up. A large gold call position that had driven months of upside was cut, signaling that the metal’s 2025 rally may have peaked.

Volatility remains inverted, with near-term option prices higher than long-term ones; a setup that usually normalizes as earnings pass.

Investor Takeaway: With short-term volatility easing, broader equity participation could resume, think mid-caps and value stocks. As gold cools, funds may rotate into equities or bonds. Investors looking for diversification might rebalance out of precious metals and into dividend ETFs or quality cyclical names.

Palantir: Strong Rally, High Expectations Ahead of Q3 Earnings

Palantir Technologies is set to report its Q3 earnings after the close on Monday. The company, which specializes in data analytics and software platforms, now ranks among the 20 most valuable firms in the S&P 500. The stock has surged more than 160% this year.

The market is currently in a new upward impulse, with the long-term uptrend confirmed by a fresh record high last week. In the short-term the stock appears slightly overbought, as the RSI sits above 70. With a forward P/E above 260, the fundamental valuation is very high, increasing the risk of a correction. Even minor disappointments could trigger significant volatility.

Analysts expect Palantir’s revenue to have risen 50.5% year-over-year to $1.09 billion in the third quarter, while earnings per share are projected to have grown by 67.4% over the same period. Should the stock come under pressure in the coming days or weeks, there are two key support zones (Fair Value Gaps) to watch:

  • $171.26 to $172.84 – a zone tested three times already, with buyers defending it each time.
  • $160.87 to $161.06 – a deeper support area that could come into focus if a correction unfolds.

Palantir, weekly chart. Source: eToro

Novo Nordisk: Can Q3 Results Prevent Further Losses?

Novo Nordisk will report its third-quarter results on Wednesday before the European market opens. The stock has been in a downtrend for over a year and has lost around 70% of its value since the record high in July 2024.

In July and August, the share price reacted to a long-term support zone (Fair Value Gap) between 290 and 310 DKK, which dates back to the 2021 rally. However, this reaction alone wasn’t enough to trigger a sustained trend reversal. Although there was a short-term rebound, only a break above resistance at 463 DKK would significantly improve the technical picture.

The upcoming earnings report will likely be decisive, showing whether Novo Nordisk will continue its downward trajectory or if the long-term support area offers a chance for a bottom formation.

Analysts expect revenue in the third quarter to have risen 7.9% year-on-year to 76.9 billion DKK, while earnings per share are projected to fall 19.1% to 4.95 DKK.

Novo Nordisk, weekly chart. Source: eToro

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